Question
Given three identical boxes, I, II, and III, each containing two coins. In box I, both coins are gold coins, in box II, both are silver coins and in box III, there is one gold and one silver coin. A person chooses a box at random and takes out a coin. If the coin is of gold, what is the probability that the other coin in the box is also of gold?

Answer

Let event $B_1$ : Select box I having two gold coins.

event $B_2$ : Selecting box II having two silver coins

event $B_3$ : Selecting box III having one silver and one gold coin,

event G: Coin is gold.

$P \left( B _1\right)= P \left( B _2\right)= P \left( B _3\right)=\frac{1}{3}$

$\begin{aligned} & P \left( G / B _1\right)=1, P \left( G / B _2\right)=0, P \left( G / B _3\right)=\frac{1}{2} \\ & P ( G )= P _{(}\left( B _1\right) P \left( G / B _1\right)+ P \left( B _2\right) P \left( G / B _2\right)\end{aligned}$

$+ P \left( B _3\right) P \left( G / B _3\right)$

$=\frac{1}{3}\left[1+0+\frac{1}{2}\right]=\frac{1}{3}\left(\frac{3}{2}\right)=\frac{1}{2}$

To find the probability that the other can in the box is also gold. Which is possible only when it is drawn from the box I.

∴ Required probability = P(B1/G)

By Bayes’ theorem,

$P\left(B_1 / G\right)=\frac{P\left(B_1\right) P\left(G / B_1\right)}{P(G)}$

$=\frac{\frac{1}{3}(1)}{\frac{1}{2}}=\frac{2}{3}$

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