Question
Obtain trend values for data, using 4-yearly centred moving averages
Year $1971$ $1972$ $1973$ $1974$ $1975$ $1976$
Production $1$ $0$ $1$ $2$ $3$ $2$
Year $1977$ $1978$ $1979$ $1980$ $1981$ $1982$
Production $4$ $6$ $5$ $1$ $4$ $10$

Answer

Construct the following table for obtaining $4$-yearly centred moving average for the data.
Year
$t$
Production
$y_t$
4-yearly moving
total
4-yearly moving average 2 unit moving total 4-yearly centred
moving averages trend value
$1971$ $1$        
           
$1972$ $0$        
    $4$ $1$    
$1973$ $1$     $2.5$ $1.25$
    $6$ $1.5$    
$1974$ $2$     $3..5$ $1.75$
    $8$ $2$    
$1975$ $3$     $4.75$ $2.375$
    $11$ $2.75$    
$1796$ $2$     $6.5$ $3.25$
    $15$ $3.75$    
$1977$ $4$     $8$ $4$
    $17$ $4.25$    
$1978$ $6$     $8.25$ $4.125$
    $16$ $4$    
$1979$ $5$     $8$ $4$
    $16$ $4$    
$1980$ $1$     $9$ $4.5$
    $20$ $5$    
$1981$ $4$        
           
$1982$ $10$        

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