Question 14 Marks
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A shopkeeper sells three types of flower seeds $A _1, A_2$, and $A _3$ They are sold as a mixture, where the proportions are 4 : 4 : 2 respectively. The germination rates of the three types of seeds are 45%, 60% and 35% respectively.
(a) Calculate the probability of a randomly chosen seed to germinate.
(b) Calculate the probability that it is of the type A2 given that randomly chosen seed does not germinate.
(c) Calculate the probability that it will not germinate given that the seed is of type $A _1$.
A shopkeeper sells three types of flower seeds $A _1, A_2$, and $A _3$ They are sold as a mixture, where the proportions are 4 : 4 : 2 respectively. The germination rates of the three types of seeds are 45%, 60% and 35% respectively.
(a) Calculate the probability of a randomly chosen seed to germinate.
(b) Calculate the probability that it is of the type A2 given that randomly chosen seed does not germinate.
(c) Calculate the probability that it will not germinate given that the seed is of type $A _1$.
Answer
View full question & answer→A shopkeeper sells three types of flower seeds $A _1, A_2$, and $A _3$ They are sold as a mixture, where the proportions are 4 : 4 : 2 respectively. The germination rates of the three types of seeds are 45%, 60% and 35% respectively.
(i) We have: $A _1: A _2: A _3=4: 4: 2$
$P\left(A_1\right)=\frac{4}{10}, P\left(A_2\right)=\frac{4}{10}, P\left(A_3\right)=\frac{2}{10}$
where, $A_1, A_2$ and $A_3$ denote three types of flowers seed.
Let 'E' be the event that a seed germinates.
$\therefore P\left(\frac{E}{A_1}\right)=\frac{45}{100}, P\left(\frac{E}{A_2}\right)=\frac{60}{100} \& P\left(\frac{E}{A_2}\right)=\frac{35}{100}$
$P\left(\frac{\bar{E}}{A_1}\right)=\frac{55}{100}, P\left(\frac{\bar{E}}{A_2}\right)=\frac{40}{100} \& P\left(\frac{\bar{E}}{A_3}\right)=\frac{65}{100}$
$P(E)=P\left(A_1\right) \cdot P\left(\frac{E}{A_1}\right)+P\left(A_2\right) P\left(\frac{E}{A_2}\right)+P\left(A_3\right)\left(\frac{E}{A_3}\right)$
$\begin{array}{l}=\frac{4}{10} \cdot \frac{45}{100}+\frac{4}{10} \times \frac{60}{100}+\frac{2}{10} \cdot \frac{35}{100} \\ =\frac{180}{1000}+\frac{240}{1000}+\frac{70}{1000}=0.49\end{array}$
(ii)
$P\left(\frac{A_2}{\bar{E}}\right)=\frac{P\left(A_2\right) \cdot P\left(\frac{\bar{E}}{A_2}\right)}{P\left(A_1\right) \cdot P\left(\frac{\bar{E}}{A_1}\right)+P\left(A_2\right) \cdot P\left(\frac{\bar{E}}{A_2}\right)+P\left(A_3\right) \cdot\left(\frac{\bar{E}}{A_3}\right)}$
$\begin{array}{l}=\frac{\frac{4}{10} \cdot \frac{40}{100}}{\frac{4}{10} \cdot \frac{55}{100}+\frac{4}{10} \cdot \frac{40}{100}+\frac{2}{10} \cdot \frac{65}{100}} \\ =0.314\end{array}$
(iii) $P\left(\frac{E}{A_1}\right)=1-P\left(\frac{E}{A_1}\right)$
$=1-\frac{45}{100}$
$=\frac{55}{100}$
(i) We have: $A _1: A _2: A _3=4: 4: 2$
$P\left(A_1\right)=\frac{4}{10}, P\left(A_2\right)=\frac{4}{10}, P\left(A_3\right)=\frac{2}{10}$
where, $A_1, A_2$ and $A_3$ denote three types of flowers seed.
Let 'E' be the event that a seed germinates.
$\therefore P\left(\frac{E}{A_1}\right)=\frac{45}{100}, P\left(\frac{E}{A_2}\right)=\frac{60}{100} \& P\left(\frac{E}{A_2}\right)=\frac{35}{100}$
$P\left(\frac{\bar{E}}{A_1}\right)=\frac{55}{100}, P\left(\frac{\bar{E}}{A_2}\right)=\frac{40}{100} \& P\left(\frac{\bar{E}}{A_3}\right)=\frac{65}{100}$
$P(E)=P\left(A_1\right) \cdot P\left(\frac{E}{A_1}\right)+P\left(A_2\right) P\left(\frac{E}{A_2}\right)+P\left(A_3\right)\left(\frac{E}{A_3}\right)$
$\begin{array}{l}=\frac{4}{10} \cdot \frac{45}{100}+\frac{4}{10} \times \frac{60}{100}+\frac{2}{10} \cdot \frac{35}{100} \\ =\frac{180}{1000}+\frac{240}{1000}+\frac{70}{1000}=0.49\end{array}$
(ii)
$P\left(\frac{A_2}{\bar{E}}\right)=\frac{P\left(A_2\right) \cdot P\left(\frac{\bar{E}}{A_2}\right)}{P\left(A_1\right) \cdot P\left(\frac{\bar{E}}{A_1}\right)+P\left(A_2\right) \cdot P\left(\frac{\bar{E}}{A_2}\right)+P\left(A_3\right) \cdot\left(\frac{\bar{E}}{A_3}\right)}$
$\begin{array}{l}=\frac{\frac{4}{10} \cdot \frac{40}{100}}{\frac{4}{10} \cdot \frac{55}{100}+\frac{4}{10} \cdot \frac{40}{100}+\frac{2}{10} \cdot \frac{65}{100}} \\ =0.314\end{array}$
(iii) $P\left(\frac{E}{A_1}\right)=1-P\left(\frac{E}{A_1}\right)$
$=1-\frac{45}{100}$
$=\frac{55}{100}$


