Question 16 Marks
Read the following text carefully and answer the questions given below:
THE FUTURE POPULATIONS OF CHINA AND INDIA
In the absence of catastrophic events such as nuclear war, the populations of India and China are destined to become even larger, and by a large margin. If the Chinese were to achieve a total fertility rate of as low as 1.7 children born per woman by 1990 and maintain fertility that low for 30 years, the population would increase to a maximum of 1.22 X 10 in 2020 about 75% greater than the 700 x 106 it was when the birth rate began its big decline in the mid-1960s. To limit the increase to this amount will require an extraordinary success of the birth planning program.
For many years, 30% of parents would need to have only one child, and 70% only two. If a significant fraction had three or more, the proportion of one-child couples would need to be higher still. The social cost would be substantial. Many children would grow up with no siblings; many in the next generation would have no aunts, uncles, or cousins; very many parents would have no sons, and there would be an age structure with a marked relative shortage of younger workers, males of military age, etc. These features are very foreign to Chinese customs and values; the stringent and allegedly coercive means needed to achieve such low fertility might have adverse political effects as did less draconian measures in India.
In India, the failure to have started a large decline in fertility as early as in China implies a prospective growth on the order of 75% or more of the current population-to a maximum of at least 1.2 x 109, because the current population is nearly the size the Chinese population was when the birth rate in China began its dramatic fall.
The death rate in India is higher than that in China, but the prospective decline in fertility in India is surely more gradual; the attainment of a replacement-level (total fertility rate of about 2.2 or 2.3 children) is long in the future, to say nothing of attainment of lower rates.
The reason for the large continuing increases in population in each country even after fertility is reduced is that population growth has its own momentum. High birth rates in the recent past mean that there will be many more potential parents for another generation than there are now. Even if every couple merely replaces itself, the population continues to increase by 50% or more.
Thus, the world's two largest populations are destined to become much larger. I believe today, as I did when working with Hoover, that if sensible economic policies are followed it will be possible to provide a somewhat better life for these larger populations than is enjoyed in the two countries today. Reducing fertility soon to no higher than needed for long-run replacement would improve the prospects significantly and would especially improve the social and economic future as seen from the perspective of early in the next century. Yet, the mistakes of the past cannot be cancelled; the birth rate cannot be lowered retrospectively. A lower birth rate now is desirable, but the ideal rate is not zero. There are social and political costs of excessive emphasis on the immediate achievement of very small families; the rights and sensibilities of the current population and the disequilibrating effects of drastic changes in age composition must enter the calculation of desirable population policies.
Questions:
i. Outline any two implications (apart from population arrest) of the one-child policy of China introduced in the late 1970s.
ii. Delineate the reasons why the world's two largest populations are destined to become much larger in the future?
THE FUTURE POPULATIONS OF CHINA AND INDIA
In the absence of catastrophic events such as nuclear war, the populations of India and China are destined to become even larger, and by a large margin. If the Chinese were to achieve a total fertility rate of as low as 1.7 children born per woman by 1990 and maintain fertility that low for 30 years, the population would increase to a maximum of 1.22 X 10 in 2020 about 75% greater than the 700 x 106 it was when the birth rate began its big decline in the mid-1960s. To limit the increase to this amount will require an extraordinary success of the birth planning program.
For many years, 30% of parents would need to have only one child, and 70% only two. If a significant fraction had three or more, the proportion of one-child couples would need to be higher still. The social cost would be substantial. Many children would grow up with no siblings; many in the next generation would have no aunts, uncles, or cousins; very many parents would have no sons, and there would be an age structure with a marked relative shortage of younger workers, males of military age, etc. These features are very foreign to Chinese customs and values; the stringent and allegedly coercive means needed to achieve such low fertility might have adverse political effects as did less draconian measures in India.
In India, the failure to have started a large decline in fertility as early as in China implies a prospective growth on the order of 75% or more of the current population-to a maximum of at least 1.2 x 109, because the current population is nearly the size the Chinese population was when the birth rate in China began its dramatic fall.
The death rate in India is higher than that in China, but the prospective decline in fertility in India is surely more gradual; the attainment of a replacement-level (total fertility rate of about 2.2 or 2.3 children) is long in the future, to say nothing of attainment of lower rates.
The reason for the large continuing increases in population in each country even after fertility is reduced is that population growth has its own momentum. High birth rates in the recent past mean that there will be many more potential parents for another generation than there are now. Even if every couple merely replaces itself, the population continues to increase by 50% or more.
Thus, the world's two largest populations are destined to become much larger. I believe today, as I did when working with Hoover, that if sensible economic policies are followed it will be possible to provide a somewhat better life for these larger populations than is enjoyed in the two countries today. Reducing fertility soon to no higher than needed for long-run replacement would improve the prospects significantly and would especially improve the social and economic future as seen from the perspective of early in the next century. Yet, the mistakes of the past cannot be cancelled; the birth rate cannot be lowered retrospectively. A lower birth rate now is desirable, but the ideal rate is not zero. There are social and political costs of excessive emphasis on the immediate achievement of very small families; the rights and sensibilities of the current population and the disequilibrating effects of drastic changes in age composition must enter the calculation of desirable population policies.
Questions:
i. Outline any two implications (apart from population arrest) of the one-child policy of China introduced in the late 1970s.
ii. Delineate the reasons why the world's two largest populations are destined to become much larger in the future?
Answer
View full question & answer→i. The one-child norm was introduced in China in the late 1970s to control the population.
The major implications are:(any two)
a. It was the major reason for its low population growth.
b. It also led to a decline in the sex ratio, the proportion of females per 1000 males
c. It would also bear a social cost that children would grow up with no siblings.
d. After a few decades, there would be more elderly people in proportion to young people.
ii. Even after adopting various measures to contain the bulging population and reducing fertility, the populations of India and China are destined to become even larger. The death rate in India is higher than that in China, but the prospective decline in fertility in India is surely more gradual. The attainment of a replacement level (total fertility rate of about 2.2 or 2.3 children) is long in the future to achieve a low population growth. Besides, population growth has its own momentum. Even if every couple merely replaces itself, the population continues to increase by 50% or more.
The major implications are:(any two)
a. It was the major reason for its low population growth.
b. It also led to a decline in the sex ratio, the proportion of females per 1000 males
c. It would also bear a social cost that children would grow up with no siblings.
d. After a few decades, there would be more elderly people in proportion to young people.
ii. Even after adopting various measures to contain the bulging population and reducing fertility, the populations of India and China are destined to become even larger. The death rate in India is higher than that in China, but the prospective decline in fertility in India is surely more gradual. The attainment of a replacement level (total fertility rate of about 2.2 or 2.3 children) is long in the future to achieve a low population growth. Besides, population growth has its own momentum. Even if every couple merely replaces itself, the population continues to increase by 50% or more.