Question 13 Marks
In a factory which manufactures bolts, machines A, B and C manufacture respectively $25 \%, 35 \%$ and $40 \%$ of the bolts. Of their outputs, 5,4 and 2 percent are respectively defective bolts. A bolt is drawn at random from the product and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it is manufactured by the machine B ?
Answer
View full question & answer→Let events $B_1, B_2, B_3$ be the following :
$B_1$ : the bolt is manufactured by machine $A$
$B_2$ : the bolt is manufactured by machine $B$
$B_3$ : the bolt is manufactured by machine $C$
Clearly, $B_1, B_2, B_3$ are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and hence, they represent a partition of the sample space.
Let the event $E$ be 'the bolt is defective'.
The event $E$ occurs with $B_1$ or with $B_2$ or with $B_3$.
Given that,
$\begin{array}{l}
P\left(B_1\right)=25 \%=0.25, \\
P\left(B_2\right)=0.35 \text { and } \\
P\left(B_3\right)=0.40
\end{array}$
Again
$P \left( E \mid B _1\right)=$ Probability that the bolt drawn is defective given that it is manufactured by machine
$A=5 \%=0.05$
Similarly, $P\left(E \mid B_2\right)=0.04$,
$P\left(E \mid B_3\right)=0.02$
Hence, by Bayes' Theorem, we have,
$\begin{aligned}
P\left(B_2 \mid E\right) & =\frac{P\left(B_2\right) \cdot P\left(E \mid B_2\right)}{P\left(B_1\right) P\left(E \mid B_1\right)+P\left(B_2\right) P\left(E \mid B_2\right)+P\left(B_3\right) P\left(E \mid B_3\right)} \\
& =\frac{0.35 \times 0.04}{0.25 \times 0.05+0.35 \times 0.04+0.40 \times 0.02} \\
& =\frac{0.0140}{0.0345} \\
& =\frac{28}{69}
\end{aligned}$
$B_1$ : the bolt is manufactured by machine $A$
$B_2$ : the bolt is manufactured by machine $B$
$B_3$ : the bolt is manufactured by machine $C$
Clearly, $B_1, B_2, B_3$ are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and hence, they represent a partition of the sample space.
Let the event $E$ be 'the bolt is defective'.
The event $E$ occurs with $B_1$ or with $B_2$ or with $B_3$.
Given that,
$\begin{array}{l}
P\left(B_1\right)=25 \%=0.25, \\
P\left(B_2\right)=0.35 \text { and } \\
P\left(B_3\right)=0.40
\end{array}$
Again
$P \left( E \mid B _1\right)=$ Probability that the bolt drawn is defective given that it is manufactured by machine
$A=5 \%=0.05$
Similarly, $P\left(E \mid B_2\right)=0.04$,
$P\left(E \mid B_3\right)=0.02$
Hence, by Bayes' Theorem, we have,
$\begin{aligned}
P\left(B_2 \mid E\right) & =\frac{P\left(B_2\right) \cdot P\left(E \mid B_2\right)}{P\left(B_1\right) P\left(E \mid B_1\right)+P\left(B_2\right) P\left(E \mid B_2\right)+P\left(B_3\right) P\left(E \mid B_3\right)} \\
& =\frac{0.35 \times 0.04}{0.25 \times 0.05+0.35 \times 0.04+0.40 \times 0.02} \\
& =\frac{0.0140}{0.0345} \\
& =\frac{28}{69}
\end{aligned}$

