Questions · Page 2 of 6

4 Marks

Question 514 Marks
From a lot of 10 bulbs, which includes 3 defectives, a sample of 2 bulbs is drawn at random. Find the probability distribution of the number of defective bulbs.
Answer
Let X be the random variate giving number of defective bulbs, X can take values 0, 1, 2

$\text{P(X = 0)}=\frac{\text{7c}_{2}}{\text{10c}_{2}}=\frac{7}{15},\text{P(X = 1)}=\frac{\text{7c}_{1}\times\text{3c}_{1}}{\text{10c}_{2}}=\frac{7}{15},\text{P(X = 2)}=\frac{\text{3c}_{2}}{\text{10c}_{2}}=\frac{1}{15}$

$\therefore$ Probability distribution of X is

X 0 1 2
P(X) 7/15 7/15 1/15

 

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Question 524 Marks
A die is thrown again and again until three sixes are obtained. Find the probability of obtaining the third six in the sixth throw of the die.
Answer
Probability of success $( p) = \frac{1}{6},$ Prob. of failure $(q) = \frac{5}{6}.$

Third six in sixth throw $\Rightarrow$ two successes in first five throws

$\therefore$ P(Two sixes in first five throws and third six in sixth throw)

$= 5_{C_{2}} \bigg(\frac{1}{6}\bigg)^{2}. \bigg(\frac{5}{6}\bigg)^{3} . \frac{1}{6}.$

$= 10 \frac{5^{3} 1}{6^{5}.6} = \frac{625}{23328}$

 

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Question 534 Marks
Three bags contain balls as shown in the table below:

Bag Number of White balls Number of Black balls Number of Red balls
I 1 2 3
II 2 1 1
III 4 3 2

A bag is chosen at random and two balls are drawn from it. They happen to be white and red. What is the probability that they came from the III bag?

Answer
Events are: $\text{E} _{1}:$ Choosing bag I

$\text{E}_{2} :$ Choosing bag II

$\text{E}_{3} :$ Choosing bag III

$\text{A}:$ Getting a white and a red ball

$\therefore \text{P(E}_{1}) = \text{P(E}_{2}) = \text{P(E}_{3}) = \frac{1}{3}$

$\text{P}\bigg(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_1}\bigg) = \frac{1.3}{6_{\text{c}_{2}}}=\frac{1}{5} ,\text{P}\bigg(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_2}\bigg)\frac{2.1}{4_{\text{c}_{2}}} = \frac{1}{3},\text{P}\bigg(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_3}\bigg) = \frac{4.2}{9_{\text{c}_{2}}} = \frac{2}{9}$

${P}\bigg(\frac{\text{E}_{3}}{\text{A}}\bigg) = \frac{P(E_{3)}P\bigg( \frac{A}{E_{3}}\bigg)}{\sum^{3}_{1} P (E_{1}).P\bigg(\frac{A}{E_{1}}\bigg)}$

$\frac{\frac{1}{3}.\frac{2}{9}}{\frac{1}{3}.\frac{1}{5} + \frac{1}{3} .\frac{1}{3} + \frac{1}{3} . \frac{1}{2}} = \frac{5}{17}$

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Question 544 Marks
A pair of dice is thrown 4 times. If getting a doublet is considered a success, find the probability distribution of number of successes.
Answer
$\text{P (a doublet)} \frac{1}{6} \Rightarrow p = \frac{1}{6}, q = \frac{5}{6}$

Probability distribution is given by $\bigg(\frac{1}{6} + \frac{5}{6}\bigg)^{4}$

Let X be the number of successes and P (X), the corresponding probability, where X takes values from 0 to 4

$\therefore$ The distribution is:

X 0 1 2 3 4
P (X) $\frac{625}{1296}$ $\frac{500}{1296}$ $\frac{150}{1296}$ $\frac{20}{1296}$ $\frac{1}{1296}$
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Question 554 Marks
An insurance company insured 2000 scooter drivers, 4000 car drivers and 6000 truck drivers. The probability of an accident involving a scooter, a car and a truck are 0.01, 0.03 and 0.15 respectively. One of the insured persons meets with an accident. What is the probability that he is a scooter driver.
Answer
$\text{Let E}_{1} ,\text{E}_{2}, \text{E}_{3}$ be the events of a person be a scooter driver, car driver and truck driver respectively.

Let A be the event of a vehicle meeting an accident.

$\therefore \text{P} \text({E}_{1}) = \frac{1}{6}, \text{P} \text({E}_{2}) = \frac{1}{3}, \text{P} \text({E}_{3}) = \frac{1}{2}$

$\text{P} \bigg(\frac{A}{E_{1}}\bigg) = \frac{1}{100}, \text{P} \bigg(\frac{A}{E_{2}}\bigg) = \frac{3}{100}, \text{P} \bigg(\frac{A}{E_{3}}\bigg) = \frac{15}{100}$

$\text{P} \bigg(\frac{A}{E_{1}}\bigg) = \frac{P(E_{1}\big) \times P\bigg(\frac{A}{E_1}\bigg)}{\sum^{3}_ {i = 1} P (E_{i} \times \bigg(\frac{A}{E_{1}}\bigg)}, i = 1, 2, 3$

$= \frac{\frac{1}{6}\times \frac{1}{100}}{\frac{1}{6}\times\frac{1}{100} + \frac{1}{3} \times\frac{3}{100} + \frac{1}{2} \times\frac{15}{100}} \frac{\frac{1}{6}}{\frac{1}{6}+1+\frac{15}{2}} = \frac{1}{6}\times \frac{6}{52} = \frac{1}{52}$

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Question 564 Marks
Two numbers are selected at random (without replacement) from the first five positive integers. Let X denote the larger of the two numbers obtained. Find the mean and variance of X.
Answer
The first five positive integers are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 we select two positive numbers in 5 × 4 = 20 ways.
Out of these two no. are selected at random.
let X denote larger of the two no.
X can be 2, 3, 4 or 5.
P(X = 2) = P(larger no. is 2) = {(1, 2) and (2, 1)}
$=\frac{2}{30}$
$\text{P}(\text{X}=3)=\frac{4}{30}$
$\text{P}(\text{X}=4)=\frac{6}{30}$
$\text{P}(\text{X}=5)=\frac{8}{30}$
$\text{Mean}=\text{E}(\text{X})=2\times\frac{2}{30}+3\times\frac{4}{30}+4\times\frac{6}{30}+5\times\frac{8}{3 0}$
$=\frac{4+12+24+40}{30}$
$=\frac{80}{30}$
$\text{Variance}=2^2\times\frac{2}{30}+3^2\times\frac{4}{30}+4^2\times\frac{6}{30}+5^2\times\frac{8}{30}$
$=\frac{8+36+96+200}{30}$
$=\frac{340}{30}=\frac{34}{3}$
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Question 574 Marks
Suppose a girl throws a die. If she gets 1 or 2, she tosses a coin three times and notes the number of tails. If she gets 3, 4, 5 or 6, she tosses a coin once and notes whether a ‘head’ or ‘tail’ is obtained. If she obtained exactly one ‘tail’, what is the probability that she threw 3, 4, 5 or 6 with the die?
Answer
Let E1 be the event that the girl. Gets 1 or 2 on the roll
$\text{P(E}_1)=\frac{2}{6}=\frac{1}{3}$
Let E2 be the event that the girl gets 3, 4, 5 or 6 on the roll $\text{P(E}_2)=\frac{4}{6}=\frac{2}{3}$
Let A be event that she obtained exactly one tails
If she tossed a coin 3 times & exactly 1 tail shows then [HTH, HHT, THH] = 3
$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_1}\Big)=\frac{3}{8}$
$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_2}\Big)=\frac{1}{2}$ (If she tossed a coin only once & exactly 1 shows)
$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_2}\Big)=\frac{\text{P}(\text{E}_2)\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_2}\Big)}{\text{P}(\text{E}_1)\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_1}\Big)+\text{P}(\text{E}_2)\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_2}\Big)}$
$=\frac{\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{2}{3}}{\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{2}{3}+\frac{3}{8}\times\frac{1}{3}}=\frac{8}{11}$
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Question 584 Marks
A manufacturer has three machine operators A, B and C. The first operator A produces 1% of defective items, whereas the other two operators B and C produces 5% and 7% defective items respectively. A is on the job for 50% of the time, B on the job 30% of the time and C on the job for 20% of the time. All the items are put into one stockpile and then one item is chosen at random from this and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it was produced by A?
Answer
Let E1, E2 and E3 be the event that machine is operated by A, B, and C respectively.
Let A be the event of producing defective items.
$\therefore\text{P}(\text{E}_1)=50\%=\frac{1}{2}$
$\text{P}(\text{E}_2)=30\%=\frac{3}{10}$
$\text{P}(\text{E}_3)=20\%=\frac{1}{5}$
Now,
$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_1}\Big)=1\%=\frac{1}{100}$
$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_2}\Big)=5\%=\frac{5}{100}$
$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_3}\Big)=7\%=\frac{7}{100}$
Using Bayes' theorem, we get
Required probability $=\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}_1}{\text{A}}\Big)=\frac{\text{P}(\text{E}_1)\text{P}\big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_1}\big)}{\text{P}(\text{E}_1)\text{P}\big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_1}\big)+\text{P}(\text{E}_2)\text{P}\big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_2}\big)+\text{P}(\text{E}_3)\text{P}\big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_3}\big)}$
$=\frac{\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{1}{100}}{\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{1}{100}+\frac{3}{10}\times\frac{5}{100}+\frac{1}{5}\times\frac{7}{100}}$
$=\frac{5}{34}$
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Question 594 Marks
Find the mean variance and standard deviation of the following probability distribution
xi a b
pi p q
Where p + q = 1
Answer
xi pi pixi pixi2
a p ap a2p
b q bq b2q

 

 

$\sum\text{p}_\text{i}\text{x}_\text{i}=\text{ap}+\text{bq}$

$\sum\text{p}_\text{i}\text{x}_\text{i}^2=\text{a}^2\text{p}+\text{b}^2\text{q}$

Now,

Mean $=\sum\text{p}_\text{i}\text{x}_\text{i}=\text{ap}+\text{bq}$

Variance $=\sum\text{p}_\text{i}\text{x}_\text{i}^2-(\text{Mean})^2$

= a2p + b2q - (ap + bq)2

= a2p + b2q - a2p2 - b2q2 - 2abpq

= a2p - a2p2 + b2q - b2q2 - 2abpq

= a2p(1 - p) + b2q(1 - q) - 2abpq

= a2pq + b2qp - 2abpq $(\because\ \text{p}+\text{q}=1)$

= pq(a2 + b2 - 2ab)

= pq(a - b)2

Step Deviation $=\sqrt{\text{Variance}}$

$=\sqrt{\text{pq}(\text{a-b})^2}$

$=|\text{a}-\text{b}|\sqrt{\text{pq}}$

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Question 604 Marks
Two cards are selected at random from a box which contains five cards numbered 1, 1, 2, 2, and 3. Let X denote the sum and Y the maximum of the two numbers drawn. Find the probability distribution, mean and variance of X and Y.
Answer
Box contains five cards 1, 1, 2, 2, 3.

Here,

X denotes the sum of the two number on cards drawn.

Y denotes the maximum of the two number.

So, X = 2, 3, 4, 5

Y = 1, 2, 3

P(X = 2) = P(1)P(1)

$=\frac{2}{5}\times\frac{1}{4}$

$=0.1$

P(X = 3) = P(1)P(2) + P(2)P(1)

$=\frac{2}{5}\times\frac{2}{4}+\frac{2}{5}\times\frac{2}{4}$

$=0.4$

P(X = 4) = P(2)P(2) + P(1)P(3) + P(3)P(1)

$=\frac{2}{5}\times\frac{1}{4}+\frac{2}{5}\times\frac{1}{4}+\frac{1}{5}\times\frac{2}{4}$

$=0.3$

P(X = 5) = P(2)P(3) + P(3)P(2)

$=\frac{2}{5}\times\frac{2}{4}+\frac{1}{5}\times\frac{2}{4}$

$=0.2$

Probability distribution for X

x: 2 3 4 5
P(x): 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2
Now,

xi pi xipi xi2pi
2 0.1 0.1 0.4
3 0.4 1.2 3.6
4 0.3 1.2 4.8
5 0.2 1.0 5.0
    $\sum\text{xp}=3.6$

$\sum\text{x}^2\text{p}=13.8$

Mean $=\sum\text{xp}$

Mean = 3.6

Variance $=\sum\text{x}^2\text{p}-(\text{mean})^2$

$=13.8-(3.6)^2$

$=13.8-12.96$

Variance = 0.84

P(Y = 1) = P(1)P(1)

$=\frac{2}{5}\times\frac{1}{4}$

$=\frac{2}{20}$

$=0.1$

P(Y = 2) = P(1)P(2) + P(2)P(1) + P(2)P(2)

$=\frac{2}{5}\times\frac{2}{4}+\frac{2}{5}\times\frac{2}{4}+\frac{2}{5}\times\frac{1}{4}$

$=0.5$

P(Y = 3) = P(1)P(3) + P(2)P(3) + P(3)P(1) + P(3)P(2)

$=\frac{2}{5}\times\frac{1}{4}+\frac{2}{5}\times\frac{1}{4}+\frac{1}{5}\times\frac{2}{4}+\frac{1}{5}\times\frac{2}{4}$

$=0.4$

Probability distribution for Y is

x:
1
2
3
p(x):
0.1
0.5
0.4
 
yi pi yipi yi2pi
1 0.1 0.1 0.1
2 0.5 1.0 2.0
3 0.4 1.2 3.6
 

 

$\sum\text{xp}=2.3$

$\sum\text{x}^2\text{p}=5.7$

Mean $=\sum\text{xp}=2.3$

Variance $=\sum\text{x}^2\text{p}-(\text{mean})^2$

$=5.1-(2.3)^2$

Variance = 0.41

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Question 614 Marks
In a game, a man wins Rs 5 for getting a number greater than 4 and loses Rs 1 otherwise, when a fair die is thrown. The man decided to thrown a die thrice but to quit as and when he gets a number greater then 4. Find the expected value of the amount he wins or loses.
Answer

The man may get number greater than 4 in the first throw and then he quits the game. He may get a number less than equat to 4. In the first throw and in the second throw he may get the number greater than 4 and quits the game.

In the first two throws he gets a number less than equal to 4 and in the third throw he may get a number greater than 6. He may not get number greater than 4 in any one of three throws.

Let X be the amount he wins/looses.

Then, X can take values -3, 3, 4, 5 such that

P(X= 5) = P(Getting number greater than 4 in first throw) $=\frac{1}{3}$

(X= 4) = P(Getting number less than equal to 4 in the first throw and number greater than 4 in second throw) $=\frac{4}{6}\times\frac{2}{6}=\frac{2}{9}$

P (X = 3) = P(Getting number less than equal to 4 in the first two throws and number greater than 4 in third throw) $=\frac{4}{6}\times\frac{4}{6}\times\frac{2}{6}=\frac{4}{27}$

P(X = -3) = P(Getting number less than equal to 4 in all three throws) $=\frac{4}{6}\times\frac{4}{6}\times\frac{4}{6}=\frac{8}{27}$

$\text{X}$ $5$ $4$ $3$ $-3$
$\text{P}(\text{X})$ $\frac{1}{3}$ $\frac{2}{9}$ $\frac{4}{27}$ $\frac{8}{27}$

$\text{E}(\text{X})=\Big(5\times\frac{1}{3}\Big)+4\Big(\frac{2}{9}\Big)+3\Big(\frac{4}{27}\Big)-3\Big(\frac{8}{27}\Big)$

$=\frac{1}{27}(45+24+12-24)$

$=\frac{57}{27}$

$=\frac{19}{9}$

Expected value of the amount he wins or loses is $=\frac{19}{9}$

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Question 624 Marks
Prove that:
  1. $\text{P}(\text{A})=\text{P}(\text{A}\cap\text{B})+\text{P}(\text{A}\cap\bar{\text{B}})$
  2. $\text{P}(\text{A}\cup\text{B})=\text{P}(\text{A}\cap\text{B})+\text{P}(\text{A}\cap\bar{\text{B}})+\text{P}(\bar{\text{A}}\cap\text{B})$
Answer
  1. $\because\text{P}(\text{A})=\text{P}(\text{A}\cap\text{B})+\text{P}(\text{A}\cap\bar{\text{B}})$

$\therefore\text{R.H.S.}=\text{P}(\text{A}\cap\text{B})+\text{P}(\text{A}\cap\bar{\text{B}})$

$=\text{P}(\text{A})\cdot\text{P}(\text{B})+\text{P}(\text{A})\cdot\text{P}\bar{(\text{B})}$

$=\text{P}(\text{A})\big[\text{P}(\text{B})+\text{P}\bar{(\text{B})}\big]$

$=\text{P}(\text{A})\big[\text{P}(\text{B})+1-\text{P}(\text{B})\big]$ $\big[\because\text{P}\bar{(\text{B})}=1-\text{P}(\text{B})\big]$

$= \text{P(A) = L. H. S} $ Hence proved.

  1. $\because\text{P}(\text{A}\cup\text{B})=\text{P}(\text{A}\cap\text{B})+\text{P}(\text{A}\cap\bar{\text{B}})+\text{P}(\bar{\text{A}}\cap\text{B})$

$\therefore\text{R.H.S.}=\text{P}(\text{A})\cdot\text{P}(\text{B})+\text{P}(\text{A})\cdot\text{P}\bar{(\text{B})}+\text{P}\bar{(\text{A})}\cdot\text{P}(\text{B})$

$=\text{P}(\text{A})\cdot\text{P}(\text{B})+\text{P}(\text{A})\cdot\big[1-\text{P}(\text{B})\big]+\big[1-\text{P}(\text{A})\big]\text{P}(\text{B})$

$=\text{P}(\text{A})\cdot\text{P}(\text{B})+\text{P}(\text{A})-\text{P}(\text{A})\cdot\text{P}(\text{B})+\text{P}(\text{B})-\text{P}(\text{A})\cdot\text{P}(\text{B})$

$=\text{P}(\text{A})+\text{P}(\text{B})-\text{P}(\text{A})\cdot\text{P}(\text{B})$

$=\text{P}(\text{A})+\text{P}(\text{B})-\text{P}(\text{A}\cap\text{B})$

$=\text{P}(\text{A}\cup\text{B})=\text{L.H.S.}$ Hence proved.

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Question 634 Marks
Find the probability distribution of the number of successes in two tosses of a die, where a success is defined as
  1. number greater than 4
  2. six appears on at least one die
Answer

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} ⇒ n(S) = 6

  1. Let A be the set of favourable events. ⇒ n(A) = 2

$\therefore\ \text{P}(\text{A})=\frac{\text{n}(\text{S})}{\text{n}(\text{A})}=\frac{2}{6}=\frac{1}{3}\ \text{and}\ \text{P}(\overline{\text{A}})=1-\frac{1}{3}=\frac{2}{3}$

n = 2, r = 0, 1, 2

$\text{P}(\text{X}=0)=\text{P}(\overline{\text{A}}).\text{P}(\overline{\text{A}})=\frac{2}{3}\times\frac{2}{3}=\frac{4}{9}$

$\text{P}(\text{X}=1)=2\text{P}(\text{A}).\text{P}(\overline{\text{A}})=2\times\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{2}{3}=\frac{4}{9}$

$\text{P}(\text{X}=2)=\text{P}(\text{A}).\text{P}(\text{A})=\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{1}{3}=\frac{1}{9}$

Probability distribution

$\text{X}$ $0$ $1$ $2$
$\text{P}(\text{X})$ $\frac{4}{9}$ $\frac{4}{9}$ $\frac{1}{9}$
  1. Let A represents that 6 appears on one die ⇒ A = {6} ⇒ n(A) = 1

$\therefore\ \text{P}(\text{A})=\frac{\text{n}(\text{S})}{\text{n}(\text{A})}=\frac{1}{6}\ \text{and}\ \text{P}(\overline{\text{A}})=1-\frac{1}{6}=\frac{5}{6}$

n = 2, r = 0, 1, 2

$\text{P}(\text{X}=0)=\text{P}(\overline{\text{A}}).\text{P}(\overline{\text{A}})=\frac{5}{6}\times\frac{5}{6}=\frac{25}{36}$

$\text{P}(\text{X}=1)=2\text{P}(\text{A}).\text{P}(\overline{\text{A}})=2\times\frac{1}{6}\times\frac{5}{6}=\frac{10}{36}$

$\text{P}(\text{X}=2)=\text{P}(\text{A}).\text{P}(\text{A})=\frac{1}{6}\times\frac{1}{6}=\frac{1}{36}$

P(at least on six) $=\frac{10}{36}\times\frac{1}{36}=\frac{11}{36}$

Probability distribution

$\text{X}_i$ $0$ $1$
$\text{P}_i$ $\frac{25}{36}$ $\frac{11}{36}$

 

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Question 644 Marks
Probability of solving specific problem independently by A and B are $\frac{1}{2}\ \text{and}\ \frac{1}{3}$ respectively.

If both try to solve the problem independently, find the probability that

  1. The problem is solved.
  2. Exactly one of them solves the problem.
Answer
Probability of solving the problem by A, P(A) $=\frac{1}{2}$

Probability of solving the problem by B, P(B) $=\frac{1}{3}$

Since the problem is solved independently by A and B,

$\therefore\text{P}(\text{AB})=\text{P}(\text{A})\cdot\text{P}(\text{B})=\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{1}{3}=\frac{1}{6}$

$\text{P}(\text{A}')=1-\text{P}(\text{A})=1-\frac{1}{2}=\frac{1}{2}$

$\text{P}(\text{B}')=1-\text{P}(\text{B})=1-\frac{1}{3}=\frac{2}{3}$

  1. Probability that the problem is solved $=\text{P}(\text{A}\cup\text{B})$

$=\text{P}(\text{A})+\text{P}(\text{B})-\text{P}(\text{AB})$

$=\frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{3}-\frac{1}{6}$

$=\frac{4}{6}$

$=\frac{2}{3}$

  1. Probability that exactly one of them solves the problem is given by,

$\text{P}(\text{A}).\text{P}(\text{B}')+\text{P}(\text{B}).\text{P}(\text{A}')$

$ =\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{2}{3}+\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{1}{3}$

$=\frac{1}{3}+\frac{1}{6}$

$=\frac{1}{2}$

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Question 654 Marks
Two numbers are selected at random from integers 1 through 9. If the sum is even, find the probability that both the numbers are odd.
Answer

Two numbers are selected at random from integers 1 through 9.

A = Both numbers are odd

A = {(3, 1), (5, 1), (7, 1), (9, 1), (3, 5), (3, 7), (9, 3), (5, 3), (5, 7), (5, 9), (7, 3), (7, 5), (7, 9), (9, 3), (9, 5), (9, 7)}

B = Sum of both numbers is even

A = Sum of both numbers is 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16 or 18 = {(1, 3), (1, 5), (2, 4), (1, 7), (2, 6), (3, 5), (1, 9), (2, 8), (3, 7), (4, 6), (7, 5), (8, 4), (9, 3), (8, 6), (9, 5), (9, 7)}

$(\text{A}\cap\text{B})=$ {(1, 3), (1, 5), (1, 7), (3, 5), (1, 9), (3, 7), (7, 5), (9, 3), (9, 5), (9, 7)} 

$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{B}}\Big)=\frac{\text{n}(\text{A}\cap\text{B})}{\text{n}(\text{B})}$

$=\frac{10}{16}$

Required probability $=\frac{10}{16}$

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Question 664 Marks
A fair coin and an unbiased die are tossed. Let A be the event ‘head appears on the coin’ and B be the event ‘3 on the die’. Check whether A and B are independent events or not.
Answer
If a fair coin and an unbiased die are tossed, then the sample space S is given by,

$\text{S} = \Bigg\{\begin{array}{c}(\text{H, 1}),\ (\text{H, 2}),\ (\text{H, 3}),\ (\text{H, 4}),\ (\text{H, 5}),\ (\text{H, 6}),\\ \text{(T, 1}),\ \text{(T, 2}),\ \text{(T, 3}),\ \text{(T, 4}),\ (\text{T, 5}),\ \text{(T, 6})\end{array}\Bigg\}$

Let A: Head appears on the coin

$\text{A}=\left\{(\text{H, 1}),\ (\text{H, 2}),\ (\text{H, 3}),\ (\text{H, 4}),\ (\text{H, 5}), (\text{H, 6})\right\}$

$\Rightarrow\text{P}(\text{A})=\frac{6}{12}=\frac{1}{2}$

B: 3 on die $=\left\{(\text{H, 3}),\ (\text{T, 3})\right\}$

$ \text{P}(\text{B})=\frac{2}{12}=\frac{1}{6}$

$\therefore\ \text{A}\cap\text{B}=\left\{(\text{H, 3})\right\}$

$\text{P}(\text{A}\cap\text{B})=\frac{1}{12}$

$\text{P}(\text{A}).\text{P}(\text{B})=\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{1}{6}=\text{P}(\text{A}\cap\text{B})$

Therefore, A and B are independent events.

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Question 674 Marks
An insurance company insured 2000 scooter drivers, 4000 car drivers and 6000 truck drivers. The probability of an accidents are 0.01, 0.03 and 0.15 respectively. One of the insured persons meets with an accident. What is the probability that he is a scooter driver?
Answer
Let E= Person chosen is a scooter driver, E= Person chosen is a car driver, E= Person chosen is a truck driver and A = Person meets with an accident

Since there are 12000 persons, therefore,

$\text{Now}\ \ \ \text{P}(\text{E}_1)=\frac{2000}{12000}=\frac{1}{6},\ \text{P}(\text{E}_2)=\frac{4000}{12000}=\frac{1}{3},\ \text{P}(\text{E}_3)=\frac{6000}{12000}=\frac{1}{2}$

It is given that $\text{P}(\text{A}|\text{E}_1)$ = P(a person meets with an accident, he is a scooter driver) = 0.01

Similarly, $\text{P}(\text{A}|\text{E}_2)=0.03\ \text{and}\ \text{P}(\text{A}|\text{E}_3)=0.15$

To find: P(person meets with an accident that he was a scooter driver)

Therefore, by Bayes’ theorem,

$\text{P}(\text{E}_1|\text{A})=\frac{\text{P}(\text{E}_1)\text{P}(\text{A}|\text{E}_1)}{\text{P}(\text{E}_1)\text{P}(\text{A}|\text{E}_1)+\text{P}(\text{E}_2)\text{P}(\text{A}|\text{E}_2)+\text{P}(\text{E}_3)(\text{A}|\text{E}_3)}$

$=\frac{\frac{1}{6}\times0.01}{\frac{1}{6}\times0.01+\frac{1}{3}\times0.03+\frac{1}{2}\times0.15}=\frac{1}{1+6+45}=\frac{1}{52}$

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Question 684 Marks
In a hostel, 60% of the students read Hindi newspaper, 40% read English newspaper and 20% read both Hindi and English news papers. A student is selected at random.
  1. Find the probability that she reads neither Hindi nor English news papers.
  2. If she reads Hindi news paper, find the probability that she reads English news paper.
  3. If she reads English news paper, find the probability that she reads Hindi news paper.
Answer
Let H denote the students who read Hindi newspaper and E denote the students who read English newspaper.

It is given that,

$\text{P}(\text{H})=60\%=\frac{60}{100}=\frac{6}{10}=\frac{3}{5}$

$\text{P}(\text{E})=40\%=\frac{40}{100}=\frac{2}{5}$

$\text{P}(\text{H}\cap\text{E})=20\%=\frac{20}{100}=\frac{1}{5}$

  1. Probability that a student reads Hindi or English newspaper is,

$\text{P}(\text{H}\cup\text{E})'=1-\text{P}(\text{H}\cup\text{E})$

$=1-\big\{\text{P}(\text{H})+\text{P}(\text{E})-\text{P}(\text{H}\cap\text{E})\big\}$

$=1-\Big(\frac{3}{5}+\frac{2}{5}-\frac{1}{5}\Big)$

$=1-\frac{4}{5}$

$=\frac{1}{5}$

  1. Probability that a randomly chosen student reads English newspaper, if she reads Hindi news paper, is given by P(E|H).

$\text{P}(\text{E}|\text{H})=\frac{\text{P}(\text{E}\cap\text{H})}{\text{P}(\text{H})}$

$=\frac{\frac{1}{5}}{\frac{3}{5}}$

$=\frac{1}{3}$

  1. Probability that a randomly chosen student reads Hindi newspaper, if she reads English newspaper, is given by P(H|E).

$\text{P}(\text{H}|\text{E})=\frac{\text{P}(\text{H}\cap\text{E})}{\text{P}(\text{E})}$

$=\frac{\frac{1}{5}}{\frac{2}{5}}$

$=\frac{1}{2}$

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Question 694 Marks
A random variable X has the following probability distribution:
X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
P(X) 0 k 2k 2k 3k k2 2k2 7k2+k
Determine
  1. k
  2. P(X < 3)
  3. P(X > 6)
  4. P(0 < X < 3)
Answer
  1. Since, the sum of all the probabilities of a distribution is 1.

∴ P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + …. + P(X = 7) = 1

⇒ 0 + k + 2k + 2k + 3k + k2 + 2k+ 7k+ k = 1

⇒ 10k2 + 9k - 1 = 0

⇒ (10k - 1) (k + 1) = 0

⇒ 10k - 1 = 0 or k + 1 = 0

 $\Rightarrow\ \text{k}=\frac{1}{10}$ or k = - 1

Since, k ≥ 0, therefore k = − 1 is not possible.

$\therefore\ \text{k}=\frac{1}{10}$

  1. P(X < 3) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)

= 0 + k + 2k

$=3\text{k}=3\times\frac{1}{10}=\frac{3}{10}$

  1. P(X > 6) = P(X = 7)

$=7\text{k}^2+\text{k}=7\Big(\frac{1}{10}\Big)^2+\frac{1}{10}=\frac{17}{100}$

  1. P(0 < X < 3) = P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)

= k + 2k = 3k = $\frac{3}{10}$

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Question 704 Marks
Two numbers are selected at random (without replacement) from positive integers 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7. Let X denote the larger of the two numbers obtained. Find the mean and variance of the probability distribution of X.
Answer
We can select two positive in 6 × 5 = 30 different ways

P(X = 3) = P(larger number is 3) = {(2, 3), (3, 2)} $=\frac{2}{30}$

P(X = 4) = P(larger number is 4) = {(2, 4), (4, 2), (3, 4), (4, 3)} $=\frac{4}{30}$

P(X = 5) = P(larger number is 5) = {(2, 5), (5, 2), (3, 5), (5, 3), (4, 5), (5, 4)} $=\frac{6}{30}$

P(X = 6) = P(larger number is 6) = {(2, 6), (6, 2), (3, 6), (6, 3), (4, 6), (6, 4), (5, 6), (6, 5)} $=\frac{8}{30}$

P(X = 7) = P(larger number is 7) = {(2, 7), (7, 2), (3, 7), (7, 3), (4, 7), (7, 4), (5, 7), (7, 5), (6, 7), (7, 6)} $=\frac{10}{30}$

Thus, the probability distribution of random variable X is,

$\text{x}_\text{i}$

$\text{p}_\text{i}$

$\text{x}_\text{i}\text{p}_\text{i}$

$\text{x}_\text{i}^2\text{p}_\text{i}$

$3$

$\frac{2}{30}$

$\frac{6}{30}$

$\frac{18}{30}$

$4$

$\frac{4}{30}$

$\frac{16}{30}$

$\frac{64}{30}$

$5$

$\frac{6}{30}$

$\frac{30}{30}$

$\frac{150}{30}$

$6$

$\frac{8}{30}$

$\frac{48}{30}$

$\frac{288}{30}$

$7$

$\frac{10}{30}$

$\frac{70}{30}$

$\frac{490}{30}$

 

 

$\sum\text{x}_\text{i}\text{p}_\text{i}=\frac{17}{3}$

$\sum\text{x}_\text{i}\text{p}_\text{i}^2=\frac{101}{3}$

Mean $=\sum\text{x}_\text{i}\text{p}_\text{i}=\frac{17}{3}$

Variance $=\sum\text{x}_\text{i}\text{p}_\text{i}-\big(\sum\text{x}_\text{i}\text{p}_\text{i}\big)^2=\frac{101}{3}-\Big(\frac{17}{3}\Big)=\frac{14}{9}$

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Question 714 Marks
Assume that each born child is equally likely to be a boy or a girl. If a family has two children, then what is the constitutional probability that both are girls? Given that.
  1. The youngest is a girl,
  2. At least one is a girl.
Answer
  1. Let 'A' be the event that both the children born are girls. Let 'B' be the event that the youngest is a girls. We have to find conditional probability $\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{B}}\Big)$.

$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{B}}\Big)=\frac{\text{P}(\text{A}\cap\text{B})}{\text{P}(\text{B})}$

$\text{A}\subset\text{B} \Rightarrow\text{A}\cap\text{B}=\text{A}$

$\Rightarrow\ \text{P}(\text{A}\cap\text{B})=\text{P(A)}=\text{P(GG)}=\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{1}{2}=\frac{1}{4}$

$\text{P(B)}=\text{P(BG)}+\text{P(GG)}=\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{1}{2} \\=\frac{1}{4}+\frac{1}{4}=\frac{1}{2}$

Hence, $\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{B}}\Big)=\frac{\frac{1}{4}}{\frac{1}{2}}=\frac{1}{2}$

  1. Let 'A' be the event that both the children born are girls. Let 'B' be the event that at least one is a girl. We have to find the conditional probability $\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{B}}\Big)$.

$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{B}}\Big)=\frac{\text{P}(\text{A}\cap\text{B})}{\text{P(B)}}$

$\text{A}\subset\text{B}\Rightarrow\text{A}\cap\text{B}=\text{A}$

$\Rightarrow\ \text{P}(\text{A}\cap\text{B})=\text{P(A)}=\text{P(GG)}=\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{1}{2}=\frac{1}{4}$

$\text{P(B)}=1-\text{P(BB)}=1-\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{1}{2}=1-\frac{1}{4}=\frac{3}{4}$

Hence, $\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{B}}\Big)=\frac{\frac{1}{4}}{\frac{3}{4}}=\frac{1}{3}$

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Question 724 Marks
A pair of dice is thrown. Find the probability of getting the sum 8 or more, if 4 appears on the first die.
Answer
A pair of dice is thrown

A = getting sum 8 or more

= Getting sum 8, 9, 10, 11 or 12 on the pair of dice

A = {(2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2), (3, 6)

(4, 5), (5, 4), (6, 3), (4, 6), (5, 5), (6, 4)

(5, 6), (6, 5), (6, 6)

B = 4 on first die

B = {(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6)}

$(\text{A}\cap\text{B})=\{(4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6)\}$

$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{B}}\Big)=\frac{\text{n}(\text{A}\cap\text{B})}{\text{n}(\text{B})}$

$=\frac{3}{6}$

$=\frac{1}{2}$

Required probability $=\frac{1}{2}$

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Question 734 Marks
A class has 15 students whose ages are 14, 17, 15, 14, 21, 19, 20, 16, 18, 17, 20, 17, 16, 19 and 20 years respectively. One student is selected in such a manner that each has the same chance to being selected and the age X of the selected student is recorded. What is the probability distribution of the random variable X.
Answer
Here, X denote the number of two number or two dice thrown together.
So, X = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12.
So,
$\text{P}(\text{X}=2)=\frac{1}{36}$ [Possible pairs: (1, 1)]
$\text{P}(\text{X}=3)=\frac{2}{36}=\frac{1}{18}$ [Possible pairs: (1, 2), (2,1)]
$\text{P}(\text{X}=4)=\frac{3}{36}=\frac{1}{12}$ [Possible pairs: (1, 3), (2,2), (3, 1)]
$\text{P}(\text{X}=5)=\frac{4}{36}=\frac{1}{9}$ [Possible pairs: (1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2), (4, 1)]
$\text{P}(\text{X}=6)=\frac{5}{36}$ [Possible pairs: (1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)]
$\text{P}(\text{X}=7)=\frac{6}{36}=\frac{1}{6}$ [Possible pairs: (1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), (6, 1)]
$\text{P}(\text{X}=8)=\frac{5}{36}$ [Possible pairs: (2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2)]
$\text{P}(\text{X}=9)=\frac{4}{36}=\frac{1}{9}$ [Possible pairs: (3, 6), (4, 5), (5, 4), (6, 3)]
$\text{P}(\text{X}=10)=\frac{3}{36}=\frac{1}{12}$ [Possible pairs: (4, 6), (5, 5), (6, 4)]
$\text{P}(\text{X}=11)=\frac{2}{36}=\frac{1}{18}$ [Possible pairs: (5, 6), (6,5)]
$\text{P}(\text{X}=12)=\frac{1}{36}$ [Possible pairs: (6, 6)]
So, required possibility distribution is
$\text{X}:$
$2$
$3$
$4$
$5$
$6$
$7$
$8$
$9$
$10$
$11$
$12$
$\text{P}(\text{X}):$
$\frac{1}{36}$
$\frac{1}{18}$
$\frac{1}{12}$
$\frac{1}{9}$
$\frac{5}{36}$
$\frac{1}{6}$
$\frac{5}{36}$
$\frac{1}{9}$
$\frac{1}{12}$
$\frac{1}{18}$
$\frac{1}{36}$
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Question 744 Marks
Three cards are drawn successively, without replacement from a pack of 52 well shuffled cards. What is the probability that first two cards are kings and third card drawn is an ace?
Answer
Let K denote the event that the card drawn is king and a be the event taht the card drawn is an ace.
We are ot find P (K K A).
Now, $\text{P(K)}=\frac{4}{52}$
Also, $\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{K}}{\text{K}}\Big)$ is the probability of second king with the condition that one king has already been drawn.
Now, there are 3 king in (52 - 1) = 51 cards.
$\therefore\ \text{P} \Big(\frac{\text{K}}{\text{K}}\Big)=\frac{3}{51}$
Lastly, $\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{K K}}\Big)$ is the probability of third drawn card to be an ace, woth the condition that two kings have already been drawn.
Now, there are four aces in left 50 cards.
$\therefore\ \text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{K K}}\Big)=\frac{4}{50}$
By multiplication law of probability, we have
$\text{P(K K A)}=\text{P(K) P}\Big(\frac{\text{K}}{\text{K}}\Big) \text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{KK}}\Big)$
$=\frac{4}{52}\times\frac{3}{51}\times\frac{4}{50}=\frac{2}{5525}$
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Question 754 Marks
An anti-aircraft gun can take a maximum of 4 shots at an enemy plane moving away from it. The probabilities of hitting the plane at the first, second, third and fourth shot are 0.4, 0.3, 0.2 and 0.1 respectively. What is the probability that the gun hits the plane?
Answer
Given,
An anti aircraft gun can rake a maximum 4 shots at an enemy plane
Consider,
A = Htting the plane at first shot
B = Hetting the plane at second shot
C = Hetting the place at third shot
D = Hetting the place at fourth shot
⇒ P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.3, P(C) = 0.2, P(D) = 0.1
P (Gun hits the place)
= 1 - P(Gun does not hit the plane)
= 1 - P(Non of the foru shots hot the place)
$=1-\text{P}(\overline{\text{A}}\cap\overline{\text{B}}\cap\overline{\text{C}}\cap\overline{\text{D}})$
$=1-\text{P}(\overline{\text{A}})\text{ P}(\overline{\text{B}})\text{ P}(\overline{\text{C}})\text{ P}(\overline{\text{D}})$
$=1-[1-\text{P(A)}]\big[1-\text{P}(\overline{\text{B}})\big][1-\text{P(C)}][1-\text{P(D)}]$
$=1-[1-0.4][1-0.3][1-0.2][1-0.1]$
$=1-(0.6)(0.7)(0.8)(0.9)$
$=1.03024$
$=0.6976$
Required probability = 0.6976
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Question 764 Marks
Arun and Tarun appeared for an interview for two vacancies. The probability of Arun's selection is $\frac{1}{4}$ and that to Tarun's rejection is $\frac{2}{3}$. Find the probability that at least one of them will be selected.
Answer
Given,
Probability of Arun's (A) selection $=\frac{1}{4}$
$\text{P(A)}=\frac{1}{4}$
Probability of tarun's (T) rejection $=\frac{2}{3}$
$\text{P}(\overline{\text{T}})=\frac{2}{3}$
$\text{P}(\overline{\text{A}})=1-\text{P(A)}$
$\Rightarrow\ \text{P}(\overline{\text{A}})=1-\frac{1}{4}$
$\Rightarrow\ \text{P}(\overline{\text{A}})=\frac{3}{4}$
$\text{P(T)}=1-\text{P}(\overline{\text{T}})$
$\Rightarrow\ \text{P(T)}=1-\frac{2}{3}$
$\Rightarrow\ \text{P(T)}=\frac{1}{3}$
P (At least one of them will be selelcted)
= 1 - P(None of them selected)
$=1-\text{P}(\overline{\text{A}}\cap\overline{\text{T}})$
$=1-\text{P}(\overline{\text{A}})\text{ P}(\overline{\text{T}})$
$=1-\frac{2}{3}\times\frac{3}{4}$
$=\frac{1}{2}$
Required probability $=\frac{1}{2}$
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Question 774 Marks
One bag contains 4 white and 5 black balls. Another bag contains 6 white and 7 black balls. A ball is transferred from first bag to the second bag and then a ball is drawn from the second bag. Find the probability that the ball drawn is white.
Answer
There are two bags.
Bag (1) contain 4 white and 5 black balls.
Bag (2) contain 6 white and 7 black balls.
A ball is taken from bag (1) and without seeing its colour is pur in bag (2). Then a ball is drawn from bag (2) and is found white in colour.
P(1 white ball from bag 1) $=\frac{4}{9}$
$\text{P}(\text{W}_1)=\frac{4}{9}$
P(1 black ball from bag 1) $=\frac{5}{9}$
$\text{P}(\text{B}_1)=\frac{5}{9}$
P(1 white ball from bag 2 given W1 is put in bag 2)
$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{W}_2}{\text{W}_1}\Big)=\frac{7}{14}$
$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{W}_2}{\text{W}_1}\Big)=\frac{1}{2}$
P(1 white ball from bag 2 given B1 is put in bag 2)
$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{W}_2}{\text{B}_1}\Big)=\frac{6}{14}$
P(1 white from bag 2)
$=\text{P}(\text{W}_1)\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{W}_2}{\text{W}_1}\Big)+\text{P}(\text{B}_1)\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{W}_2}{\text{W}_1}\Big)$
$=\frac{4}{9}\times\frac{1}{2}+\frac{5}{9}\times\frac{6}{14}$
$=\frac{4}{18}+\frac{30}{126}$
$=\frac{58}{126}$
$=\frac{29}{63}$
Required probability $=\frac{29}{63}$
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Question 784 Marks
Find the probability that the sum of the numbers showing on two dice is 8, given that at least one die does not show five.
Answer
Two dice are thrown
A = Sum of the numbers on dice is 8
A = {(2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2)}
B = At least one die does not show five
B = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 6)
(2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 6)
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 6)
(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 6)
(6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 6)}
$(\text{A}\cap\text{B})=\{(2, 6), (4, 6), (6, 2)\}$
$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{B}}\Big)=\frac{\text{n}(\text{A}\cap\text{B})}{\text{n}(\text{B})}$
$=\frac{3}{25}$
Require probability $=\frac{3}{25}$
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Question 794 Marks
A shopkeeper sells three types of flower seeds A1, A2 and A3. They are sold as a mixture where the proportions are 4 : 4 : 2 respectively. The germination rates of the three types of seeds are 45%, 60% and 35%. Calculate the probability:
  1. Of a randomly chosen seed to germinate.
  2. That it will not germinate given that the seed is of type A3.
  3. That it is of the type A2 given that a randomly chosen seed does not germinate.
Answer
We have,

$\text{P}(\text{A}_1)=\frac{4}{10},\text{P}(\text{A}_2)=\frac{4}{10}$ and $\text{P}(\text{A}_3)=\frac{2}{10}$

Where A1, Aand Adenote the three types of flower seeds.

Let E be the event that a seed germinates and be the event that a seed does not germinate.

$\therefore\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}}{\text{A}_1}\Big)=\frac{45}{100},\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}}{\text{A}_2}\Big)=\frac{60}{100}$ and $\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}}{\text{A}_3}\Big)=\frac{35}{100}$

and $\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}'}{\text{A}_1}\Big)=\frac{55}{100},\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}'}{\text{A}_2}\Big)=\frac{40}{100}$ and $\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}'}{\text{A}_3}\Big)=\frac{65}{100}$

  1. $\therefore\text{P}(\text{E})=\text{P}(\text{A}_1)\cdot \text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}}{\text{A}_1}\Big)+\text{P}(\text{A}_2)\cdot\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}}{\text{A}_2}\Big) +\text{P}(\text{A}_3)\cdot\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}}{\text{A}_3}\Big)$

$=\frac{4}{10}\cdot\frac{45}{100}+\frac{4}{10}\cdot\frac{60}{100}+\frac{2}{10}\cdot\frac{35}{100}$

$=\frac{180}{1000}+\frac{240}{1000}+\frac{70}{1000}$

$=\frac{490}{1000}=0.49$

  1. $\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}'}{\text{A}_3}\Big)=1-\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}}{\text{A}_3}\Big)$

$=1-\frac{35}{100}=\frac{65}{100}$

  1. $\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}_2}{\text{E}'}\Big)=\frac{\text{P}(\text{A}_2)\cdot\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}'}{\text{A}_2}\Big)}{\text{P}(\text{A}_1)\cdot\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}'}{\text{A}_1}\Big)+\text{P}(\text{A}_2)\cdot\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}'}{\text{A}_2}\Big)+\text{P}(\text{A}_3)\cdot\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}}{\text{A}_3}\Big)}$

$=\frac{\frac{4}{10}\cdot\frac{40}{100}}{\frac{4}{10}\cdot\frac{55}{100}+\frac{4}{10}\cdot\frac{40}{100}+\frac{2}{10}\cdot\frac{65}{100}}$

$=\frac{16}{51}$

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Question 804 Marks
The probability that a bulb produced by a factory will fuse after 150 days of use is 0.05. Find the probability that out of 5 such bulbs.
  1. None
  2. Not more than one
  3. More than one
  4. At least one
will fuse after 150 days of use.
Answer
Let X represent the number of bulbs that will fuse after 150 days of use in an experiment of 5 trials. The trials are Bernoulli trials.

It is given that, p = 0.05

$\therefore\ \text{q}=1-\text{p}=1-0.05=0.95$

X has a binomial distribution with n = 5 and p = 0.05

$\therefore\ \text{p}(\text{X=x})=\ ^\text{n}\text{C}_\text{x}\text{q}^\text{n-x}\text{p}^\text{x},\ \text{where x}=1,\ 2,\ ...\text{n}$

$=\ ^5\text{C}_\text{x}(0.95)^{5-\text{x}}.(0.05)^\text{x}$

  1. P(none) = P(X = 0)

$=\ ^5\text{C}_{0}(0.95)^{5}.(0.05)^{0}$

$=1\times(0.95)^{5}$

$=(0.95)^{5}$

  1. P(not more than one) = P(X ≤ 1)

$\text{P}(\text{X}=0)+\text{P}(\text{X}=1)$

$=\ ^5\text{C}_0(0.95)^{5}\times(0.05)^{0}+\ ^5\text{C}_1(0.95)^{4}\times(0.05)^{1}$

$=1\times(0.95)^{5}+5\times(0.95)^{4}\times (0.05)$

$=(0.95)^{5}+(0.25)(0.95)^4$

$=(0.95)^{4}[0.95+0.25]$

$=(0.95)^{4}\times1.2$

  1. P(more than 1) = P(X > 1)

$=1-\text{P}(\text{X}\leq1)$

= 1 - P(not more than 1)

$=1-(0.95)^4\times1.2$

  1. P(at least one) = P(X ≥ 1)

$=1-\text{P}(\text{X}<1)$

$=1-\text{P}(\text{X}=0)$

$=1-\ ^5\text{C}_0(0.95)^5\times(0.05)^0$

$=1-1\times(0.95)^5$

$=1-(0.95)^5$

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Question 814 Marks
Let X be a discrete random variable whose probability distribution is defined as follows:
$\text{P}(\text{X}=\text{x})=\begin{cases}\text{k}(\text{x}+1) & \text{for}\text{ x}= 1,2,3,4\\2\text{kx} & \text{for}\text{ x } =5,6,7\\0&\text{otherwise} \end{cases}$
where k is a constant. Calculate:
  1. The value of A if E(X) = 2.94
  2. Variance of X.
  3. Standard deviation of X.
Answer
We have $\text{P}(\text{X}=\text{x})=\begin{cases}\text{k}(\text{x}+1) & \text{for}\text{ x}= 1,2,3,4\\2\text{kx} & \text{for}\text{ x } =5,6,7\\0&\text{otherwise} \end{cases}$
Thus, we have
X
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Otherwise
P(X)
2k
3k
4k
5k
10k
12k
14k
0
XP(X)
2k
6k
12k
20k
50k
72k
98k
0
X2P(X)
2k
12k
36k
80k
250k
432k
686k
0
 Since, $\sum\text{P}_{\text{i}}=1$
$\Rightarrow\text{k}(2+3+4+5+10+12+14)=1$
$\Rightarrow\text{k}=\frac{1}{50}$
$\because\text{E}(\text{X})=\sum\text{XP}(\text{X})$
$\therefore\text{E}(\text{X})=2\text{k}+6\text{k}+12\text{k}+20\text{k}+50\text{k}+72\text{k}+98\text{k}+0$
$=260\text{k}=260\times\frac{1}{50}=\frac{26}{5}=5.2\ ......(\text{i})$
We know that,
$\text{Var}(\text{X})=\big[\text{E}(\text{X})^2\big]-\big[\text{E}(\text{X})\big]^2=\sum\text{X}^2\text{P}(\text{X})-\Big[\sum\left\{\text{XP}(\text{X})\right\}\Big]^2$
$=\big[2\text{k}+12\text{k}+36\text{k}+80\text{k}+250\text{k}+432\text{k}+686\text{k}+0\big]-\big[5.2\big]^2$
$=\big[1498\text{k}\big]-27.04$
$=\Big[1498\times\frac{1}{50}\Big]-27.04$
$=29.96-27.04=2.92$
We know that, standard deviation of $\text{X}=\sqrt{\text{Var}(\text{X})}=\sqrt{2.92}$
$=1.7088\cong1.7$
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Question 824 Marks
Suppose we have four boxes A,B,C and D containing coloured marbles as given below:
Box           Marble colour
  Red White Black
A 1 6 3
B 6 2 2
C 8 1 1
D 0 6 4
One of the boxes has been selected at random and a single marble is drawn from it. If the marble is red, what is the probability that it was drawn from box A?, box B?, box C?
Answer
Let R represents the drawing of red ball and the four boxes are represented by A, B, and D.
$\text{P}(\text{R}|\text{A})=\frac{1}{10}$
$\text{P}(\text{R}|\text{B})=\frac{6}{10}$
$\text{P}(\text{R}|\text{C})=\frac{8}{10}$
$\text{P}(\text{R}|\text{D})=\frac{0}{10}=0$
Since there are 4 bags.
Therefore, $\text{P}(\text{A})=\frac{1}{4},\ \text{P}(\text{B})=\frac{1}{4},\ \text{P}(\text{C})=\frac{1}{4},\ \text{P}(\text{D})=\frac{1}{4},$
$\text{P}(\text{A|R})=\frac{\text{P}(\text{A}).\text{P}(\text{A|R})}{\text{P}(\text{A})\text{P}(\text{R|A})+\text{P}(\text{B})\text{P}(\text{R|B})+\text{P}(\text{C})\text{P}(\text{R|C})+\text{P}(\text{D})\text{P}(\text{R|D})}$
$=\frac{\frac{1}{4}\times\frac{1}{10}}{\frac{1}{4}\times\frac{1}{10}+\frac{1}{4}\times\frac{6}{10}+\frac{1}{4}\times\frac{8}{10}+\frac{1}{4}\times0}$
$=\frac{\frac{1}{10}}{\frac{1}{10}+\frac{6}{10}+\frac{8}{10}}=\frac{1}{15}$
$\text{P}(\text{B|R})=\frac{\text{P}(\text{B}).\text{P}(\text{R|B})}{\text{P}(\text{A})\text{P}(\text{R|A})+\text{P}(\text{B})\text{P}(\text{R|B})+\text{P}(\text{C})\text{P}(\text{R|C})+\text{P}(\text{D})\text{P}(\text{R|D})}$
$=\frac{\frac{1}{4}\times\frac{6}{10}}{\frac{1}{4}\times\frac{1}{10}+\frac{1}{4}\times\frac{6}{10}+\frac{1}{4}\times\frac{8}{10}+\frac{1}{4}\times0}=\frac{6}{15}=\frac{2}{5}$
$\text{P}(\text{C|R})=\frac{\text{P}(\text{C}).\text{P}(\text{R|C})}{\text{P}(\text{A})\text{P}(\text{R|A})+\text{P}(\text{B})\text{P}(\text{R|B})+\text{P}(\text{C})\text{P}(\text{R|C})+\text{P}(\text{D})\text{P}(\text{R|D})}$
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Question 834 Marks
A biased die is such that $\text{P}(4)=\frac{1}{10}$ and other scores being equally likely. The die is tossed twice. If X is the ‘number of fours seen’, find the variance of the random variable X.
Answer
Since, X = Number of fours seen
On tossing to die, X = 0, 1, 2.
Also, $\text{P}_4=\frac{1}{10}$ and $\text{P}_{(\text{not}4)}=\frac{9}{10}$
So, $\text{P}(\text{X}=0)=\text{P}_{(\text{not}4)}\cdot\text{P}_{(\text{not}4)}$
$=\frac{9}{10}\cdot\frac{9}{10}=\frac{81}{100}$
 $\text{P}(\text{X}=1)=\text{P}_{(\text{not}4)}\cdot\text{P}_{(4)}\cdot\text{P}_{(\text{not}4)}$
$=\frac{9}{10}\cdot\frac{1}{10}+\frac{1}{10}\cdot\frac{9}{10}=\frac{81}{100}$
$\text{P}(\text{X}=2)=\text{P}_{(4)}\cdot\text{P}_{(4)}\cdot\text{P}_{(4)}$
$=\frac{1}{10}\cdot\frac{9}{10}=\frac{1}{100}$
$\text{X}$
$0$
$1$
$2$
$\text{P}(\text{X})$
$\frac{81}{100}$
$\frac{18}{100}$
$\frac{1}{100}$
$\text{X}\text{P}(\text{X})$
$0$
$\frac{18}{100}$
$\frac{2}{100}$
$\text{X}^2\text{P}(\text{X})$
$0$
$\frac{18}{100}$
$\frac{4}{100}$
$\therefore\text{Var}(\text{X})=\text{E}(\text{X})^2-\Big[\text{E}(\text{X})^2\Big]$
$=\sum\text{X}^2\text{P}(\text{X})-\Big[\sum\text{X}\text{P}(\text{X})\Big]^2$
$=\Big[0+\frac{18}{100}+\frac{4}{100}\Big]-\Big[0+\frac{18}{100}+\frac{2}{100}\Big]^2$
$=\frac{22}{100}-\Big(\frac{20}{100}\Big)^2=\frac{11}{50}-\frac{1}{25}$
$=\frac{11-2}{50}=\frac{9}{50}$
$=\frac{18}{100}=0.18$
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Question 844 Marks
A bag contains 5 red marbles and 3 black marbles. Three marbles are drawn one bybone without replacement. What is the probability that at least one of the three marbles drawn be black, if the first marble is red?
Answer
Let R = {5 red marbles} and B = {3 black marbles}

For at least one of the three marbles drawn be black, if the first marble is red, then the following three conditions will be followed:

  1. Second ball is black and third is red (E1).
  2. Second ball is black and third is also black (E2). 
  3. Second ball is red and third is black (E3). 

$\therefore\text{P}(\text{E}_1)=\text{P}(\text{R}_1)\cdot\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{B}_1}{\text{R}_1}\Big)\cdot\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{R}_2}{\text{R}_1\text{B}_1}\Big)$

$=\frac{5}{8}\cdot\frac{3}{7}\cdot\frac{4}{6}=\frac{60}{336}=\frac{5}{28}$

$\text{P}(\text{E}_2)=\text{P}(\text{R}_1)\cdot\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{B}_1}{\text{R}_1}\Big)\cdot\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{B}_2}{\text{R}_1\text{B}_1}\Big)$

$\frac{5}{8}\cdot\frac{3}{7}\cdot\frac{2}{6}=\frac{30}{336}=\frac{5}{56}$

And $\text{P}(\text{E}_3)=\text{P}(\text{R}_1)\cdot\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{R}_2}{\text{R}_1}\Big)\cdot\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{B}_1}{\text{R}_1\text{R}_2}\Big)$

$=\frac{5}{8}\cdot \frac{4}{7}\cdot\frac{3}{6}=\frac{60}{336}=\frac{5}{28}$

$\therefore\text{P(E)}=\text{P(E}_1)+\text{P(E}_2)+\text{P(E}_3)=-\frac{5}{28}+\frac{5}{56}+\frac{5}{28}$

$=\frac{10+5+10}{56}=\frac{25}{56}$

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Question 854 Marks
A card is drawn and replaced in an ordinary pack of 52 cards. How many times must a card be drawn so that.
  1. there is at least an even chance of drawing a heart.
  2. the probability of drawing a heart is greater than $\frac{3}{4}$?
Answer
Let p denote the probability of drawing a heart from a deck of 52 cards, so

$\text{p}=\frac{13}{52}$ [$\because$ There are 13 hearts in deck]

$\text{p}=\frac{1}{4}$

$\text{q}=1-\frac{1}{4}$ [since p + q = 1]

$\text{q}=\frac{3}{4}$

Let the card is drawn n times. so Binomial distribution is given by 

$\text{P(X = r)}=\text{ }^{\text{n}}\text{c}_\text{r}\text{p}^{\text{r}}\text{q}^{\text{n}-\text{r}}$

where X denote the number of spades drawn and r = 0, 1, 2, 3, ..... n

  1. We have to find the smallest value of n for which P(X = 0) is less than $\frac{1}{4}$

$\text{P(X = 0)}<\frac{1}{4}$

$\text{ }^\text{n}\text{C}_0\big(\frac{1}{1}\big)^0\big(\frac{3}{4}\big)^{\text{n}-0}<\frac{1}{4}$

$\big(\frac{3}{4}\big)^{\text{n}}<\frac{1}{4}$

Put  $\text{n}=1, \big(\frac{3}{4}\big)\nless\frac{1}{4}$

$\text{n}=2, \big(\frac{3}{4}\big)^2\nless\frac{1}{4}$

$\text{n}=3, \big(\frac{3}{4}\big)^3\nless\frac{1}{4}$

So, smallest value of n = 3

$\therefore$ we must draw card at least 3 times

  1. Given the probability of drawing a heart $>\frac{3}{4}$

$1-\text{P(X = 0)}>\frac{3}{4}$

$1-\text{ }^{\text{n}}\text{C}_0\big(\frac{1}{4}\big)^0\big(\frac{3}{4}\big)^{\text{n}-0}>\frac{3}{4}$

$1-\big(\frac{3}{4}\big)^{\text{n}}>\frac{3}{4}$

$1-\frac{3}{4}>\big(\frac{3}{4}\big)^{\text{n}}$

$\frac{1}{4}>\big(\frac{3}{4}\big)^{\text{n}}$

For $\text{n}=1,\big(\frac{3}{4}\big)^1$ not less than $\frac{1}{4}$

$\text{n}=2,\big(\frac{3}{4}\big)^2$ not less than $\frac{1}{4}$

$\text{n}=3,\big(\frac{3}{4}\big)^3$ not less than $\frac{1}{4}$

$\text{n}=4,\big(\frac{3}{4}\big)^4$ not less than $\frac{1}{4}$

$\text{n}=5,\big(\frac{3}{4}\big)^5$ not less than $\frac{1}{4}$

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Question 864 Marks
A person buys a lottery ticket in 50 lotteries, in each of which his chance of winning a prize is $\frac{1}{100}.$ What is the probability that he will win a prize.
  1. at least once.
  2. exactly once.
  3. at least twice.
Answer
Let X denote the number of times the person wine the lottery.

Then, X follows a binomial distribution with n = 50.

Let p be the probability of winning a prize.

$\therefore\text{p}=\frac{1}{100},\text{q}=1-\frac{1}{100}=\frac{9}{100}$

Hence, the distribution is given by

$\text{P(X = r})=\text{ }^{50}\text{C}_{\text{r}}\big(\frac{1}{100}\big)^{\text{r}}\big(\frac{99}{100}\big)^{50-\text{r}},\text{r}=0,1,2,\dots50$

  1. P(winning at least once) $=\text{P(X}\geq0)$

$=1-\text{P(X}-0)$

$=1-\big(\frac{99}{100}\big)^{50}$

  1. P(winning exactly once) $=\text{P(X}=1)$

$=\text{ }^{50}\text{C}_1\big(\frac{1}{100}\big)^1\big(\frac{99}{100}\big)^{50-1}$

$=\frac{1}{2}\big(\frac{99}{100}\big)^{49}$

  1. P(winning at least twice) $=\text{P(X}\geq2)$

$=1-\text{P(X}=0)-\text{P(X}=1)$

$=1-\big(\frac{99}{100}\big)^{50}-\text{ }^{50}\text{C}_1\times\frac{1}{100}\times\big(\frac{99}{100}\big)^{49}$

$=1-\frac{99^{49}\times149}{100^{50}}$

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Question 874 Marks
An insurance company insured 3000 scooters, 4000 cars and 5000 trucks. The probabilities of the accident involving a scooter, a car and a truck are 0.02, 0.03 and 0.04 respectively. One of the insured vehicles meet with an accident. Find the probability that it is a,
  1. Scooter.
  2. Car.
  3. Truck.
Answer
Let E1, E2 and E3 denote the events that the vehicle is a scooter, a car and a truck, respectively.

Let A be the event that the vehicle meets with an accident.

It is given that there are 3000 scooters, 4000 cars and 5000 trucks.

Total number of vehicles = 3000 + 4000 + 5000 = 12000

$\text{P}(\text{E}_1)=\frac{3000}{12000}=\frac{1}{4}$

$\text{P}(\text{E}_2)=\frac{4000}{12000}=\frac{1}{4}$

$\text{P}(\text{E}_3)=\frac{5000}{12000}=\frac{5}{12}$

The probability that the vehicle, which meets with an accident, is a scooter is given by $\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}_1}{\text{A}}\Big).$

Now,

$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_1}\Big)=0.02=\frac{2}{100}$

$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_2}\Big)=0.03=\frac{3}{100}$

$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_3}\Big)=0.04=\frac{4}{100}$

Using Baues's theorem, we get

  1. Required probability $=\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}_1}{\text{A}}\Big)=\frac{\text{P}(\text{E}_1)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_1}\Big)}{\text{P}(\text{E}_1)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_1}\Big)+\text{P}(\text{E}_2)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_2}\Big)+\text{P}(\text{E}_3)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_3}\Big)}$

$=\frac{\frac{1}{4}\times\frac{2}{100}}{\frac{1}{4}\times\frac{2}{100}+\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{3}{100}+\frac{5}{12}\times\frac{4}{100}}$

$=\frac{\frac{1}{2}}{\frac{1}{2}+1+\frac{5}{3}}=\frac{\frac{1}{2}}{\frac{3+6+10}{6}}=\frac{3}{19}$

  1. Required probability $=\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}_2}{\text{A}}\Big)=\frac{\text{P}(\text{E}_2)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_2}\Big)}{\text{P}(\text{E}_1)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_1}\Big)+\text{P}(\text{E}_2)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_2}\Big)+\text{P}(\text{E}_3)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_3}\Big)}$

$=\frac{\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{3}{100}}{\frac{1}{4}\times\frac{2}{100}+\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{3}{100}+\frac{5}{12}\times\frac{4}{100}}$

$=\frac{\frac{1}{2}}{\frac{1}{2+1+\frac{5}{3}}}=\frac{\frac{1}{2}}{\frac{3+6+10}{6}}=\frac{6}{19}$

  1. Required probability $\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}_3}{\text{A}}\Big)=\frac{\text{P}(\text{E}_3)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_3}\Big)}{\text{P}(\text{E}_1)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_1}\Big)+\text{P}(\text{E}_2)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_2}\Big)+\text{P}(\text{E}_3)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_3}\Big)}$

$=\frac{\frac{5}{15}\times\frac{4}{100}}{\frac{1}{4}\times\frac{2}{100}+\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{3}{100}+\frac{5}{12}\times\frac{4}{100}}$

$=\frac{\frac{5}{3}}{\frac{1}{2}+1+1\frac{5}{3}}=\frac{\frac{5}{3}}{\frac{3+6+10}{6}}=\frac{10}{19}$

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Question 884 Marks
Three persons A, B, C throw a die in succession till one gets a 'six' and wins the game. Find their respective probabilities of winning.
Answer
Let E be the even of getting a six
$\text{P(E)}=\frac{1}{6}$
$\text{P}(\overline{\text{E}})=\frac{5}{6}$
A wins if he gets a six in 1st or 4th, 7th ..... throw
A wins in first throw $\text{P(E)}=\frac{1}{6}$
A wins is 4th throw if he fails in 1st, B fails in 2nd, C fails in 3rd throw.
Probability of winning A in 4th throw
$=\text{P}(\overline{\text{E}})\text{P}(\overline{\text{E}})\text{P}(\overline{\text{E}})\text{P(E)}$
$=\Big(\frac{5}{6}\Big)^3\times\frac{1}{6}$
Hence, probability of winning of A
$=\frac{1}{6}+\Big(\frac{5}{6}\Big)^3\times\frac{1}{6}+\Big(\frac{5}{6}\Big)^6\times\frac{1}{6}+\ .....$
$=\frac{1}{6}\Big[1+\Big(\frac{5}{6}\Big)^3+\Big(\frac{5}{6}\Big)^6+\ .....\Big]$
$=\frac{1}{6}\bigg[\frac{1}{1-\big(\frac{3}{5}\big)^3}\bigg]\Big[\text{Using S}_{\infty}=\frac{\text{a}}{1-\text{r}}\ \text{for G. P.}\Big]$
$=\frac{1}{6}\bigg[\frac{1}{1-\frac{125}{216}}\bigg]$
$=\frac{1}{6}\times\frac{216}{91}$
$=\frac{36}{91}$
B wins if he gets a six in 2nd or 5th or 8th ...... throw.
B wins in 2nd throw $=\text{P}(\overline{\text{E}})\text{P(E)}$
$=\Big(\frac{5}{6}\Big)\Big(\frac{1}{6}\Big)$
B wins in 5th throw if a fails in first, B fails in 2nd, C fails in 3rd, A fails in 4th.
Probabiliy of winning B in 5th throw
$=\text{P}(\overline{\text{E}})\text{P}(\overline{\text{E}})\text{P}(\overline{\text{E}})\text{P}(\overline{\text{E}})\text{P(E)}$
$=\Big(\frac{5}{4}\Big)^4\Big(\frac{1}{6}\Big)$
Probability of winning B in 8th thrwo
$=\Big(\frac{5}{6}\Big)^7\Big(\frac{1}{6}\Big)$
Hence, probability of winning B
$=\Big(\frac{5}{6}\Big)\frac{1}{6}+\Big(\frac{5}{6}\Big)^4\Big(\frac{1}{6}\Big)+\Big(\frac{5}{6}\Big)^7\Big(\frac{1}{6}\Big)$
$=\frac{5}{6}\times\frac{1}{6}\Big[1+\Big(\frac{5}{6}\Big)^3+\Big(\frac{5}{6}\Big)^6+\ .....\Big]$
$=\frac{5}{36}\bigg[\frac{1}{1-\big(\frac{5}{6}\big)^3}\bigg]\Big[\text{Since S}_{\infty}=\frac{\text{a}}{1-\text{r}}\ \text{for G.P.}\Big]$
$=\frac{5}{36}\bigg[\frac{1}{1-\frac{125}{216}}\bigg]$
$=\frac{5}{36}\times\Big[\frac{216}{91}\Big]$
$=\frac{30}{91}$
Probability of winning C = 1 - P(A wins) - P(B wins)
$=1-\frac{36}{91}-\frac{30}{91}$
The probabilities of winning of A, B, and C are $\frac{36}{91},\frac{30}{91}$ and $\frac{25}{91}$.
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Question 894 Marks
The contents of urns I, II, III are as follows:
Urn I : 1 white, 2 black and 3 red balls
Urn II : 2 white, 1 black and 1 red balls
Urn III : 4 white, 5 black and 3 red balls.
One urn is chosen at random and two balls are drawn. They happen to be white and red. What is the probability that they come from Urns I, II, III?
Answer
Urn I contains 1 white, 2 black and 3 red balls
Urn II contains 2 white, 1 black and 1 red balls
Urn III contains 4 white, 5 black and 3 red balls.
Consider E1, E2, E3 and A be events as:
E1 = Selecting unr I
E2 = Selecting urn II
E3 = Selecting urn III
A = Drawing 1 white and 1 red balls
$\text{P}(\text{E}_1)=\frac{1}{3}$
$\text{P}(\text{E}_2)=\frac{1}{3}$
$\text{P}(\text{E}_3)=\frac{1}{3}$
P (A|E1) = P[Drawing 1 red and 1 white from urn I]
$=\frac{^{1}\text{C}_1\times ^{3}\text{C}_1}{^{6}\text{C}_2}$
$=\frac{1\times3}{\frac{6\times5}{2}}$
$=\frac{1}{5}$
$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_2}\Big)=\text{P}$ [Drawing 1 red and 1 white from urn II]
$=\frac{^{2}\text{C}_1\times ^{1}\text{C}_1}{^{4}\text{C}_2}$
$=\frac{2\times1}{\frac{4\times3}{2}}$
$=\frac{1}{3}$
$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_3}\Big)=\text{P}$ [Drawing 1 red and 1 white from urn III]
$=\frac{^{2}\text{C}_1\times ^{1}\text{C}_1}{^{4}\text{C}_1}$
$=\frac{2\times1}{\frac{12\times11}{2}}$
$=\frac{2}{11}$
We have to find,
P(They come from urn I) $=\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}_1}{\text{A}}\Big)$
P(They come from urm II) $=\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}_2}{\text{A}}\Big)$
P(They come from urn III) $=\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}_3}{\text{A}}\Big)$
By baye,s theorem,
$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}_1}{\text{A}}\Big)=\frac{\text{P}(\text{E}_1)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_1}\Big)}{\text{P}(\text{E}_1)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_1}\Big)+\text{P}(\text{E}_2)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_2}\Big)+\text{P}(\text{E}_3)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_3}\Big)}$
$=\frac{\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{1}{5}}{\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{1}{5}+\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{1}{3}+\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{2}{11}}$
$=\frac{\frac{1}{5}}{\frac{1}{5}+\frac{1}{3}+\frac{2}{11}}$
$=\frac{\frac{1}{5}}{\frac{36+55+30}{165}}$
$=\frac{1}{5}\times\frac{165}{118}$
$=\frac{33}{118}$
$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}_2}{\text{A}}\Big)=\frac{\text{P}(\text{E}_2)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_2}\Big)}{\text{P}(\text{E}_1)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_1}\Big)+\text{P}(\text{E}_2)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_2}\Big)+\text{P}(\text{E}_3)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_3}\Big)}$
$=\frac{\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{1}{3}}{\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{1}{5}+\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{1}{3}+\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{2}{11}}$
$=\frac{\frac{1}{3}}{\frac{1}{5}+\frac{1}{3}+\frac{2}{11}}$
$=\frac{\frac{1}{3}}{\frac{33+55+30}{165}}$
$=\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{165}{118}$
$=\frac{55}{118}$
$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{E}_3}{\text{A}}\Big)=\frac{\text{P}(\text{E}_3)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_3}\Big)}{\text{P}(\text{E}_1)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_1}\Big)+\text{P}(\text{E}_2)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_2}\Big)+\text{P}(\text{E}_3)\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_3}\Big)}$
$=\frac{\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{2}{11}}{\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{1}{5}+\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{1}{3}+\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{2}{11}}$
$=\frac{\frac{2}{11}}{\frac{1}{5}+\frac{1}{3}+\frac{2}{11}}$
$=\frac{2}{11}\times\frac{165}{118}$
$=\frac{30}{118}$
Therefore, required probability $=\frac{33}{118},\frac{55}{118},\frac{30}{118}.$
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Question 904 Marks
The contents of three bags I, II and III are as follows:
Bag I : 1 white, 2 black and 3 red balls,
Bag II : 2 white, 1 black and 1 red ball;
Bag III : 4 white, 5 black and 3 red balls.
A bag is chosen at random and two balls are drawn. What is the probability that the balls are white and red?
Answer
A white ball and a red ball can be drawn in three mutually exclusice ways:
  1. Selecting bag I and then drawing a white and a red ball from it.
  2. Selecting bag II and then drawing a white and a red ball from it.
  3. Selecting bag III and then drawing a white and a red ball from it.
Let E1, E2 and A be the events as defined below;
E1 = Selecting bag I
E2 = Selecting bag II
E3 = Selecting bag III
A = Drawing A white and a red ball
It is given that one of the bags is selected randomly.
$\therefore\ \text{P}(\text{E}_1)=\frac{1}{3}$
$\text{P}(\text{E}_2)=\frac{1}{3}$
$\text{P}(\text{E}_3)=\frac{1}{3}$
Now,
$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_1}\Big)=\frac{^{1}\text{C}_1\times ^{3}\text{C}_1}{^{6}\text{C}_2}=\frac{3}{15}$
$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_2}\Big)=\frac{^{2}\text{C}_1\times ^{1}\text{C}_1}{^{4}\text{C}_2}=\frac{2}{6}$
$\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_3}\Big)=\frac{^{4}\text{C}_1\times ^{3}\text{C}_1}{^{12}\text{C}_2}=\frac{12}{66}$
Using the law of total probability, we get
Required probability $=\text{P(A)}=\text{P}(\text{E})_1\text{ P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_1}\Big)+\text{P}(\text{E}_2)\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_2}\Big)+\text{P}(\text{E}_3)\text{P}\Big(\frac{\text{A}}{\text{E}_3}\Big)$
$=\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{3}{15}+\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{2}{6}+\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{12}{66}$
$=\frac{1}{15}+\frac{1}{9}+\frac{2}{33}$
$=\frac{33+55+30}{495}$
$=\frac{118}{495}$
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Question 914 Marks
An urn contains 10 black and 5 white balls. Two balls are drawn from the urn one after the other without replacement. What is the probability that both drawn balls are black?
Answer
Let E and F denote respectively the events that first and second ball drawn are black. We have to find $\text{P}(\text{E}\cap\text{F})$ or P(EF)
Now P(E) = P (black ball in first draw) $=\frac{10}{15}$
Also given that the first ball drawn is black, i.e, event E has occurred, now there are 9 black balls and five white balls left in the urn. Therefore, the probability that the second ball drawn is black, given that the ball in the first draw is black, is nothing but the conditional probability of F given that E has occurred.
i.e., $\text{P}(\text{F}|\text{E})=\frac{9}{14}$
By multiplication rule of probability, we have
$\text{P}(\text{E}\cap\text{F})=\text{P}(\text{E})\text{ P}(\text{F}|\text{E})$
$=\frac{10}{15}\times\frac{9}{14}=\frac{3}{7}$
Multiplication rule of probability for more than two events if E,F and G are three events of sample space, we have
$\text{P}(\text{E}\cap\text{F}\cap\text{G})=\text{P}(\text{E})\text{ P}(\text{F}|\text{E}) \text{ P}(\text{G}) (\text{G}\cap\text{F})= \text{P}(\text{E})\text{ P}(\text{F}|\text{E}) \text{ P}(\text{G}|\text{EF})$
Similarly, the multiplication rule of probability can be extended for four or more events.
The following example illustrates the extension of multiplication rule of probability for three events.
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Question 924 Marks
There are three coins. One is two-headed coin (having head on both faces), another is biased coin that comes up heads 75% of the times and third is also a biased coin that comes up tail 40% of the times. One of the three coins is chosen at random and tossed, and it shows heads. What is the probability that it was the two-headed coin?
Answer
A be the event of choosing two - headed coin,
B be the event of choosing a biased coin that comes up head 75% of the times,
C be the event of choosing a biased coin that comes up tail 40% of the times and
E be the event of getting a head.
Now,
$\text{P(A)}=\text{P(B)}=\text{P(C)}=\frac{1}{3}$ and
$\text{P}(\text{E}|\text{A})=1,\text{P}(\text{E}|\text{B})=75\%=\frac{75}{100}=\frac{3}{4}$ and $\text{P}(\text{E}|\text{C})=60\%=\frac{60}{100}=\frac{3}{5}$
So, using Bayes' theorem, we get
P (the head shown was of two - headed coin) = P(A|E)
$=\frac{\text{P(A)}\times\text{P}(\text{E}|\text{A})}{\text{P(A)}\times\text{P}(\text{E}|\text{A})+\text{P(B)}\times(\text{E}|\text{B})+\text{P(C)}\times\text{P}(\text{E}|\text{C})}$
$=\frac{\Big(\frac{1}{3}\times1\Big)}{\Big(\frac{1}{3}\times1+\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{3}{4}+\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{3}{5}\Big)}$
$=\frac{\Big(\frac{1}{3}\Big)}{\Big(\frac{1}{3}+\frac{1}{4}+\frac{1}{5}\Big)}$
$=\frac{\Big(\frac{1}{3}\Big)}{\Big(\frac{20+15+12}{60}\Big)}$
$=\frac{\Big(\frac{4}{3}\Big)}{\Big(\frac{47}{60}\Big)}$
$=\frac{60}{3\times47}$
$=\frac{20}{47}$
So, the probability that the head shown was of a two-headed coin is $=\frac{20}{47}$.
Disclaimer: The answer given in the book is incorrect. The same has been corrected here.
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Question 934 Marks
The probabilities of two students A and B coming to the school in time are $\frac{3}{7}$ and $\frac{5}{7}$ respectively. Assuming that the events, 'A coming in time' and 'B coming in time' are independent, find the probability of only one of them coming to the school in time. Write at least one advantage of coming to school in time.
Answer
Given that the events 'A coming in time' and 'B coming in time' are independent.
Let 'A' denote the event of 'A coming in time'.
Then, $'\overline{\text{A}'}$ denotes the complementary event of A.
Similarly define B and $\overline{\text{B}}$.
P(Only one coming in time) $=\text{P}(\text{A}\cap\overline{\text{B}})+\text{P}(\overline{\text{A}}\cap\text{B})$
$=\text{P(A)}\times\text{P}(\overline{\text{B}})+\text{P}(\overline{\text{A}})\times\text{P(B)}\ ......$
(Since A and B are independent events)
$=\frac{3}{7}\times\frac{2}{7}+\frac{4}{7}\times\frac{5}{7}=\frac{6}{49}+\frac{20}{49}=\frac{26}{49}$
The advantage of coming to school in time is that you will not miss any part of the lecture and will be able to learn more.
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Question 944 Marks
The probability of a shooter hitting a target is $\frac{3}{4}.$ How many minimum number of times must he/she fire so that the probability of hitting the target at least once is more than 0.99?
Answer
Let the shooter fire n times.
n fires are bernoulli trials.
In each trial, p = probability of hitting the target $=\frac{3}{4}$
And q = probability of not hitting the target $=1-\frac{3}{4}=\frac{1}{4}$
Then, $\text{P(X = x})=\text{ }^{\text{n}}\text{c}_{\text{x}}\text{q}^{\text{n}-\text{x}}\text{p}^{\text{x}}=\text{ }^{\text{n}}\text{c}_{\text{x}}\big(\frac{1}{4}\big)^{\text{n}-\text{x}}\big(\frac{3}{4}\big)^{\text{x}}=\text{ }^{\text{n}}\text{c}_{\text{x}}\frac{3^{\text{x}}}{4^{\text{n}}}$
Now, given that
P(hitting the target atleast once) > 0.99
i.e. $\text{P(X}\geq1)>0.99$
$\Rightarrow1-\text{P(X}=0)>0.99$
$\Rightarrow1-\text{ }^{\text{n}}\text{c}_0\frac{1}{4^{\text{n}}}>0.99$
$\Rightarrow\text{ }^{\text{n}}\text{c}_0\frac{1}{4^{\text{n}}}<0.01$
$\Rightarrow\frac{1}{4^{\text{n}}}<0.01$
$\Rightarrow4^{\text{n}}>\frac{1}{0.01}=100$
The minimum value of n to satisfy this inequality is 4
Thus, the shooter must fire 4 times.
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Question 954 Marks
A fair die is tossed. Let X denote 1 or 3 according as an odd or an even number appears. Find the probability distribution, mean and variance of X.
Answer
Let X be 1 for the appearance of odd numbers 1, 3 or 5 on the die. Then,

$\text{P}(\text{X}=1)=\frac{3}{6}=\frac{1}{2}$

Let X be 3 for the appearance of even numbers 2, 4 or 6 on the die. Then,

$\text{P}(\text{X}=3)=\frac{3}{6}=\frac{1}{2}$

Thus, the probability distribution of X is given by

$\text{X}$

$\text{P}(\text{X})$

$1$

$\frac{1}{2}$

$3$

$\frac{1}{2}$

Computation of mean and variance

$\text{x}_\text{i}$

$\text{p}_\text{i}$

$\text{p}_\text{i}\text{x}_\text{i}$

$\text{p}_\text{i}\text{x}_\text{i}^2$

$2$

$\frac{1}{2}$

$\frac{1}{2}$

$\frac{1}{2}$

$4$

$\frac{1}{2}$

$\frac{3}{2}$

$\frac{9}{2}$

 

 

$\sum\text{x}_\text{i}\text{p}_\text{i}=2$

$\sum\text{x}_\text{i}\text{p}_\text{i}^2=5$

Mean $=\sum\text{x}_\text{i}\text{p}_\text{i}=2$

Variance $=\sum\text{p}_\text{i}\text{x}_\text{i}^2-(\text{Mean})^2$

$=5-4$

$=1$

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Question 964 Marks
A card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards so that each card is equally likely to be selected. In which of the following cases are the events A and B independent?
A = The card drawn is a king or queen,
B = the card drawn is a queen or jack.
Answer
A card is drawn from 52 cards
It has 4 kings, 4 queen, 4 jack
A = The card drawn is a king ir a queen
$\text{P(A)}=\frac{4+4}{52}$
$=\frac{8}{52}$
$\text{P(A)}=\frac{2}{13}$
B = the card drawn is a queen or a jack
$\text{P(B)}=\frac{4+4}{52}$
$=\frac{8}{52}$
$=\frac{2}{13}$
$\text{A}\cap\text{B}=$ The card drawn is a queen
$\text{P}(\text{A}\cap\text{B})=\frac{4}{52}$
$=\frac{1}{13}$
$\text{P(A)}\text{ P(B)}=\frac{2}{13}\times\frac{2}{13}$
$=\frac{4}{169}$
$\text{P(A)}\text{ P(B)}\neq\text{P}(\text{A}\cap\text{B})$
Hence, A and B are not independent.
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Question 974 Marks
The probability of a man hitting a target is 0.25. He shoots 7 times. What is the probability of his hitting at least twice?
Answer
Let hitting the target be a success in a shoot.
We have,
p = probability of hitting the target $=0.25=\frac{1}{4}$
Also, $\text{q}=1-\text{p}=1=\frac{1}{4}=\frac{3}{4}$
Let X denote the number of success in a sample of 7 trils. then,
X follows binomial distribution with parameters n = 7 and $\text{p}=\frac{1}{4}$
$\therefore\text{P(X = r})=\text{ }^7\text{C}_{\text{r}}\text{p}^{\text{r}}\text{q}^{(7-\text{r})}=\text{ }^7\text{C}_{\text{r}}\big(\frac{1}{4}\big)^{\text{r}}\big(\frac{3}{4}\big)^{(7-\text{r})}=\frac{\text{ }^7\text{C}_{\text{r}}3^{(7-\text{r})}}{4^7},$ where r = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Now,
Required probability $=\text{P(X}\geq2)$
$=1-\big[\text{P(X}=0)+\text{P(X}=1)\big]$
$=1-\Big[\frac{\text{ }^7\text{C}_03^7}{4^7}+\frac{\text{ }^7\text{C}_13^6}{4^7}\Big]$
$=1-\Big[\frac{2187}{16384}+\frac{5103}{16384}\Big]$
$=1-\frac{7290}{16384}$
$=\frac{9094}{16384}$
$=\frac{4547}{8192}$
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Question 984 Marks
Bag I contains 3 red and 4 black balls and Bag II contains 4 red and 5 black balls. One ball is transferred from Bag I to Bag II and then a ball is drawn from Bag II. The ball so drawn is found to be red in colour. Find the probability that the transferred ball is black.
Answer
Bag I contains 3 red and 4 black balls.
Bag II contain 4 red and 5 black balls.
Let E1 : Evenr that a red ball is drawn from bag I
E2 : Event that a black ball is drawn from bag I
$\therefore\ \text{P}(\text{E}_1)=\frac{3}{7},\ \text{P}(\text{E}_2)=\frac{4}{7}$
After transferring a red ball from bag I to bag II, the bag II will have 5 red and 5 black balls.
Let A be the event of drawing red ball
$\therefore\ \text{P}(\text{A|E}_1)=\frac{5}{10}=\frac{1}{2}$
Further when a black ball is transferred from bag I to bag II, it will contain 4 red and 6 black balls.
$\text{P}(\text{A|E}_2)=\frac{4}{10}=\frac{2}{5}$
$\text{Required probability}\ =\text{P}(\text{E}_2|\text{A})=\frac{\text{P}(\text{E}_2)\text{P}(\text{A|E}_2)}{\text{P}(\text{E}_1)\text{P}(\text{A|E}_1)+\text{P}(\text{E}_2)\text{P}(\text{A|E}_2)}$
$=\frac{\frac{4}{7}\times\frac{2}{5}}{\frac{3}{7}\times\frac{1}{2}+\frac{4}{7}\times\frac{2}{5}}=\frac{\frac{8}{35}}{\frac{13}{14}+\frac{8}{35}}=\frac{\frac{8}{35}}{\frac{15+16}{70}}=\frac{8}{35}\times\frac{70}{31}=\frac{16}{31.}$
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Question 994 Marks
A card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards so that each card is equally likely to be selected. In which of the following cases are the events A and B independent?
A = the card drawn is black,
B = the card drawn is a king.
Answer
A card is drawn from pack of 52 cards
There are 26 black and four kings in which 2 kings are black.
A = the card drawn is black
$\text{P(A)}=\frac{26}{52}$
$\text{P(A)}=\frac{1}{2}$
B = the card drawn is a king
$\text{P(B)}=\frac{4}{52}$
$=\frac{1}{13}$
$\text{A}\cap\text{B}=$ The card drawn is a black king
$\text{P}(\text{A}\cap\text{B})=\frac{2}{52}=\frac{1}{26}$
$\text{P(A) }\text{P(B)}=\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{1}{13}$
$=\frac{1}{26}$
$\text{P(A) }\text{P(B)}=\text{P}(\text{A}\cap\text{B})$
So, A and B are independent events.
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Question 1004 Marks
A coin is tossed thrice and all the eight outcomes are assumed equally likely. In which of the following cases are the following events A and B are independent?
A = The number of heads is odd,
B = The number of tails is odd.
Answer
Sample space for a coin thrown thrice is
= {HHT, HTT, THT, TTT, HHH, HTH, THH, TTH}
A = the number of head is odd
A = {HTT, THT, TTH, HHH}
B = the number if tails is odd
B = {THH, HTH, HHT, TTT}
$\text{A}\cap\text{B}=\{\}=\phi$
$\text{P(A)}=\frac{4}{8}=\frac{1}{2}$
$\text{P(B)}=\frac{4}{8}=\frac{1}{2}$
$\text{P}(\text{A}\cap\text{B})=\frac{0}{8}=0$
$\text{P(A)}.\text{P(B)}=\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{1}{2}$
$=\frac{1}{4}$
$\text{P(A)}.\text{P(B)}\neq\text{P}(\text{A}\cap\text{B})$
So, A and B are not independent events.
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