Question 15 Marks
An experiment succeeds twice as often as it fails. Find the probability that in the next 6 trials there will be at least 4 successes.
Answer
View full question & answer→Let X denote the number of successes in 6 trials.
It is given that successes are twice the failures.
$\Rightarrow\text{p}=2\text{q}$
$\text{p + q}=1$
$\Rightarrow3\text{q}=1$
$\Rightarrow\text{q}=\frac{1}{3}$
$\therefore\text{p}=1-\frac{1}{3}=\frac{2}{3}$
$\text{ n}=6$
Hence, the distribution is given by
$\text{P(X = r})=\text{ }^6\text{C}_{\text{r}}\big(\frac{2}{3}\big)^{\text{r}}\big(\frac{1}{3}\big)^{6-\text{r}},\text{r}=0,1,2,\dots6$
$\text{P(atleast 4 successes})=\text{P(X}\geq4)$
$=\text{P(X}=4)+\text{P(X}=5)+\text{P(X}=6)$
$\text{ }^6\text{C}_4\big(\frac{2}{3}\big)^4\big(\frac{1}{3}\big)^{6-4}+\text{ }^6\text{C}_5\big(\frac{2}{3}\big)^5\big(\frac{1}{3})^{6-5}+\text{ }^6\text{C}_6\big(\frac{2}{3}\big)^6\big(\frac{1}{3}\big)^{6-6}$
$=\frac{15(2^4)+6(32)+64}{3^6}$
$=\frac{240+192+64}{729}$
$=\frac{496}{729}$
It is given that successes are twice the failures.
$\Rightarrow\text{p}=2\text{q}$
$\text{p + q}=1$
$\Rightarrow3\text{q}=1$
$\Rightarrow\text{q}=\frac{1}{3}$
$\therefore\text{p}=1-\frac{1}{3}=\frac{2}{3}$
$\text{ n}=6$
Hence, the distribution is given by
$\text{P(X = r})=\text{ }^6\text{C}_{\text{r}}\big(\frac{2}{3}\big)^{\text{r}}\big(\frac{1}{3}\big)^{6-\text{r}},\text{r}=0,1,2,\dots6$
$\text{P(atleast 4 successes})=\text{P(X}\geq4)$
$=\text{P(X}=4)+\text{P(X}=5)+\text{P(X}=6)$
$\text{ }^6\text{C}_4\big(\frac{2}{3}\big)^4\big(\frac{1}{3}\big)^{6-4}+\text{ }^6\text{C}_5\big(\frac{2}{3}\big)^5\big(\frac{1}{3})^{6-5}+\text{ }^6\text{C}_6\big(\frac{2}{3}\big)^6\big(\frac{1}{3}\big)^{6-6}$
$=\frac{15(2^4)+6(32)+64}{3^6}$
$=\frac{240+192+64}{729}$
$=\frac{496}{729}$