Question 14 Marks
Arka bought two cages of birds: Cage $-I $ contains $5$ parrots and $1$ owl and Cage $-II$ contains $6$ parrots. One day Arka forgot to lock both cages and two birds flew from Cage $-I$ to Cage $-II$ $($simultaneously$)$. Then two birds flew back from cage $-II$ to cage $-I \ ($simultaneously$)$.
Assume that all the birds have equal chances of flying.
On the basis of the above information, answer the following questions: $-$
$(i)$ When two birds flew from Cage $-I$ to Cage $-II$ and two birds flew back from Cage $-II$ to Cage $-I$ then find the probability that the owl is still in Cage $-I.$
$(ii)$ When two birds flew from Cage $-I$ to Cage $-II$ and two birds flew back from Cage $-II$ to Cage-I, the owl is still seen in Cage $-I,$ what is the probability that one parrot and the owl flew from Cage $-I$ to Cage $-II$?
Assume that all the birds have equal chances of flying.
On the basis of the above information, answer the following questions: $-$
$(i)$ When two birds flew from Cage $-I$ to Cage $-II$ and two birds flew back from Cage $-II$ to Cage $-I$ then find the probability that the owl is still in Cage $-I.$
$(ii)$ When two birds flew from Cage $-I$ to Cage $-II$ and two birds flew back from Cage $-II$ to Cage-I, the owl is still seen in Cage $-I,$ what is the probability that one parrot and the owl flew from Cage $-I$ to Cage $-II$?
Answer
View full question & answer→Let $E_1$ be the event that the parrot and the owl fly from cage $-I$
$E_2$ be the event that two parrots fly from cage $-I$
$E_3$ be the event that the owl is still in cage $-I$
$E_3^c$ be the event that the owl is not in cage $-I$
$ n\left(E_1 \cap E_3\right)=\left(5_{C_1} \times 1_{C_1}\right)\left(7_{C_1} \times 1_{C_1}\right)=35$
$n\left(E_1 \cap E_3^c\right)=\left(5_{C_1} \times 1_{C_1}\right)\left(7_{C_2}\right)=105 $
$ n\left(E_2 \cap E_3\right)=\left(5_{C_2}\right)\left(8_{C_2}\right)=280$
$n\left(E_2 \cap E_3^c\right)=0 $
$n ( S )=35+105+280+0=420 \ ($Total sample points$)$
$(i)$ Probability that the owl is still in Cage $-I = P \left(E_3\right)= P \left(E_1 \cap E_3\right)+ P \left(E_2 \cap E_3\right)$
$=\frac{35+280}{420}=\frac{315}{420}=\frac{3}{4}$
$(ii)$ The probability that one parrot and the owl flew from Cage $-I$ to Cage $-II$ given
that the owl is still in cage $-I$ is $P\left(\frac{E_1}{E_8}\right)$
$ P\left(\frac{E_1}{E_3}\right)=\frac{P\left(E_1 \cap E_3\right)}{P\left(E_3\right)}=\frac{P\left(E_1 \cap E_3\right)}{P\left(E_1 \cap E_3\right)+P\left(E_2 \cap E_3\right)} \ ($by Baye's Theorem$)$
$=\frac{\frac{35}{420}}{\frac{315}{420}}=\frac{1}{9} $
$E_2$ be the event that two parrots fly from cage $-I$
$E_3$ be the event that the owl is still in cage $-I$
$E_3^c$ be the event that the owl is not in cage $-I$
$ n\left(E_1 \cap E_3\right)=\left(5_{C_1} \times 1_{C_1}\right)\left(7_{C_1} \times 1_{C_1}\right)=35$
$n\left(E_1 \cap E_3^c\right)=\left(5_{C_1} \times 1_{C_1}\right)\left(7_{C_2}\right)=105 $
$ n\left(E_2 \cap E_3\right)=\left(5_{C_2}\right)\left(8_{C_2}\right)=280$
$n\left(E_2 \cap E_3^c\right)=0 $
$n ( S )=35+105+280+0=420 \ ($Total sample points$)$
$(i)$ Probability that the owl is still in Cage $-I = P \left(E_3\right)= P \left(E_1 \cap E_3\right)+ P \left(E_2 \cap E_3\right)$
$=\frac{35+280}{420}=\frac{315}{420}=\frac{3}{4}$
$(ii)$ The probability that one parrot and the owl flew from Cage $-I$ to Cage $-II$ given
that the owl is still in cage $-I$ is $P\left(\frac{E_1}{E_8}\right)$
$ P\left(\frac{E_1}{E_3}\right)=\frac{P\left(E_1 \cap E_3\right)}{P\left(E_3\right)}=\frac{P\left(E_1 \cap E_3\right)}{P\left(E_1 \cap E_3\right)+P\left(E_2 \cap E_3\right)} \ ($by Baye's Theorem$)$
$=\frac{\frac{35}{420}}{\frac{315}{420}}=\frac{1}{9} $
