Question 13 Marks
The probability that it rains today is 0.4. If it rains today, the probability that it will rain tomorrow is 0.8. If it does not rain today, the probability that it will rain tomorrow is 0.7. If
P1: denotes the probability that it does not rain today.
P2: denotes the probability that it will not rain tomorrow, if it rains today.
P3: denotes the probability that it will rain tomorrow, if it does not rain today.
P4: denotes the probability that it will not rain tomorrow, if it does not rain today.
(i) Find the value of $P_1 \times P_4-P_2 \times P_3$
(ii) Calculate the probability of raining tomorrow.
P1: denotes the probability that it does not rain today.
P2: denotes the probability that it will not rain tomorrow, if it rains today.
P3: denotes the probability that it will rain tomorrow, if it does not rain today.
P4: denotes the probability that it will not rain tomorrow, if it does not rain today.
(i) Find the value of $P_1 \times P_4-P_2 \times P_3$
(ii) Calculate the probability of raining tomorrow.
Answer
View full question & answer→Since the event of raining today and not raining today are complementary events so if the probability that it rains today is 0.4 then the probability that it does not rain today is $1-0.4=0.6 \Rightarrow P_1=0.6$
If it rains today, the probability that it will rain tomorrow is 0.8 then the probability that it will not rain tomorrow is 1-0.8-0.2.
If it does not rain today, the probability that it will rain tomorrow is 0.7 then the probability that it will not rain tomorrow is 1-0.7-0.3

(i) $P_1 \times P_4-P_2 \times P_3=0.6 \times 0.3-0.2 \times 0.7=0.04$.
(ii) Let $E_1$ and $E_2$ be the events that it will rain today and it will not rain today respectively.
$P\left(E_1\right)=0.4 \& P\left(E_2\right)=0.6$$A$ be the event that it will rain tomorrow. $P\left(\frac{A}{E_1}\right)=0.8 \& P\left(\frac{A}{E_2}\right)=0.7$
We have, $P(A)=P\left(E_1\right) P\left(\frac{A}{E_1}\right)+P\left(E_2\right) P\left(\frac{A}{E_2}\right)=0.4 \times 0.8+0.6 \times 0.7=0.74$.
The probability of rain tomorrow is $0 . 7 4$.
If it rains today, the probability that it will rain tomorrow is 0.8 then the probability that it will not rain tomorrow is 1-0.8-0.2.
If it does not rain today, the probability that it will rain tomorrow is 0.7 then the probability that it will not rain tomorrow is 1-0.7-0.3

(i) $P_1 \times P_4-P_2 \times P_3=0.6 \times 0.3-0.2 \times 0.7=0.04$.
(ii) Let $E_1$ and $E_2$ be the events that it will rain today and it will not rain today respectively.
$P\left(E_1\right)=0.4 \& P\left(E_2\right)=0.6$$A$ be the event that it will rain tomorrow. $P\left(\frac{A}{E_1}\right)=0.8 \& P\left(\frac{A}{E_2}\right)=0.7$
We have, $P(A)=P\left(E_1\right) P\left(\frac{A}{E_1}\right)+P\left(E_2\right) P\left(\frac{A}{E_2}\right)=0.4 \times 0.8+0.6 \times 0.7=0.74$.
The probability of rain tomorrow is $0 . 7 4$.

