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Question 13 Marks
In a factory which manufactures bulbs, machines A, B, and C manufacture respectively 25%, 35% and 40% of the bulbs. Of their outputs, 5, 4, and 2 percent are respectively defective bulbs. A bulb is drawn at random from the product and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it is manufactured by machine B?
Answer
Let event A: Bulb manufactured by machine A

event B: Bulb manufactured by machine B

event C: Bulb manufactured by machine C

event D: Bulb defective

$\begin{aligned} & \therefore P(A)=\frac{25}{100} \\ & P(B)=\frac{35}{100} \\ & P(C)=\frac{40}{100}\end{aligned}$

Machines A, B and C manufacture respectively 25%, 35% and 40% of the bulbs. Of their outputs, 5, 4, and 2 percent are respectively defective bulbs.

$P ( D / A )=\frac{5}{100}, P ( D / B )=\frac{4}{100}$

$P ( D / C )=\frac{2}{100}$

$\begin{aligned} & P(D)=P(A) P(D / A)+P(B) P(D / B) \\ &+P(C) P(D / C)\end{aligned}$

$=\frac{25}{100} \times \frac{5}{100}+\frac{35}{100} \times \frac{4}{100}+\frac{40}{100} \times \frac{2}{100}$

$=\frac{1}{100 \times 100}(125+140+80)=\frac{345}{100 \times 100}$

Required probability = P(B/D)

By Bayes’ theorem,

$P ( B / D )=\frac{ P ( B ) P ( D / B )}{ P ( D )}=\frac{\frac{35}{100} \times \frac{4}{100}}{\frac{345}{100 \times 100}}=\frac{28}{69}$

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Question 23 Marks
Given three identical boxes, I, II, and III, each containing two coins. In box I, both coins are gold coins, in box II, both are silver coins and in box III, there is one gold and one silver coin. A person chooses a box at random and takes out a coin. If the coin is of gold, what is the probability that the other coin in the box is also of gold?
Answer
Let event $B_1$ : Select box I having two gold coins.

event $B_2$ : Selecting box II having two silver coins

event $B_3$ : Selecting box III having one silver and one gold coin,

event G: Coin is gold.

$P \left( B _1\right)= P \left( B _2\right)= P \left( B _3\right)=\frac{1}{3}$

$\begin{aligned} & P \left( G / B _1\right)=1, P \left( G / B _2\right)=0, P \left( G / B _3\right)=\frac{1}{2} \\ & P ( G )= P _{(}\left( B _1\right) P \left( G / B _1\right)+ P \left( B _2\right) P \left( G / B _2\right)\end{aligned}$

$+ P \left( B _3\right) P \left( G / B _3\right)$

$=\frac{1}{3}\left[1+0+\frac{1}{2}\right]=\frac{1}{3}\left(\frac{3}{2}\right)=\frac{1}{2}$

To find the probability that the other can in the box is also gold. Which is possible only when it is drawn from the box I.

∴ Required probability = P(B1/G)

By Bayes’ theorem,

$P\left(B_1 / G\right)=\frac{P\left(B_1\right) P\left(G / B_1\right)}{P(G)}$

$=\frac{\frac{1}{3}(1)}{\frac{1}{2}}=\frac{2}{3}$

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Question 33 Marks
A machine produces parts that are either good (90%), slightly defective (2%), or obviously defective (8%). Produced parts get passed through an automatic inspection machine, which is able to detect any part that is obviously defective and discard it. What is the probability that the quality of the parts that make it through the inspection machine and get shipped?
Answer
Let event G: The event that machine produces a good part,

event S: The event that machine produces a slightly defective part,

event D: The event that machine produces an obviously defective part.

$P ( G )=\frac{90}{100}=0.90, P ( S )=\frac{2}{100}=0.02$,

$P(D)=\frac{8}{100}=0.08$

Let $D^{ c }= G \cup S$. Then

$P \left( G / D ^{ c }\right)=\frac{ P \left( G \cap D ^{ c }\right)}{ P \left( D ^{ c }\right)}$

$=\frac{P(G)}{P(G \cup S)} \ldots[\because G \cap(G \cup S)=G]$

$=\frac{ P ( G )}{ P ( G )+ P ( S )}$

$\ldots[\because G$ and $S$ are disjoint sets $]$

$\begin{aligned} & =\frac{0.90}{0.90+0.02} \\ & =\frac{0.90}{0.92}=\frac{90}{92}=\frac{45}{46}\end{aligned}$

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Question 43 Marks
Find the probability that a year selected will have 53 Wednesdays.
Answer
A leap year comes after 3 years.

$\therefore$ The probability of a year being a leap year $=\frac{1}{4}$

$\therefore$ Probability of a year being a non-leap year $=1-\frac{1}{4}=\frac{3}{4}$

In a non-leap year, there are 52 weeks and one extra day, whereas a leap year has 52 weeks and 2 extra days.

$\therefore 53$ rd Wednesday's chance in a non-leap year $=\frac{1}{7}$

Two extra days of a leap year can be (Mon, Tue), (Tue, Wed), (Wed, Thu), (Thu, Fri), (Fri, Sat), (Sat, Sun), (Sun, Mon)

∴ There are 2 possibilities of 53rd Wednesday in a leap year.

$\therefore 53$ rd Wednesday's chance in a leap year $=\frac{2}{7}$

Required probability = P(a non-leap year and Wednesday) + P(a leap year and Wednesday)

$\begin{aligned} & =\frac{3}{4} \times \frac{1}{7}+\frac{1}{4} \times \frac{2}{7} \\ & =\frac{5}{28}\end{aligned}$

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Question 53 Marks
Let $A$ and $B$ be independent events with $P(A)=\frac{1}{4}$ and $P(A \cup B)=2 P(B)-P(A)$. Find

(i) P(B)

2. P(A/B)

3. P(B’/A)

Answer
A and B are independent events. .

∴ P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)

(i) P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

∴ P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A) × P(B)

∴ 2P(B) – P(A) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A) × P(B) ……[∵ P(A ∪ B) = 2P(B) – P(A)]

$\begin{aligned} & \therefore 2 P(B)-\frac{1}{4}=\frac{1}{4}+P(B)-\frac{1}{4} \times P(B) \\ & \therefore 2 P(B)-P(B)+\frac{1}{4} P(B)=\frac{1}{4}+\frac{1}{4}\end{aligned}$

ii. $\quad \begin{aligned} P(A / B) & =\frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} \\ \therefore \quad P(A / B) & =\frac{P(A) \times P(B)}{P(B)} \\ & =P(A)=\frac{1}{4}\end{aligned}$

iii. $\begin{aligned} P\left(B^{\prime} / A\right) & =\frac{P\left(B^{\prime} \cap A\right)}{P(A)} \\ & =\frac{P\left(B^{\prime}\right) \times P(A)}{P(A)} \\ & =P\left(B^{\prime}\right) \\ & =1-P(B) \\ & =1-\frac{2}{5}=\frac{3}{5}\end{aligned}$

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Question 63 Marks
The odds against A solving a certain problem are 4 to 3 and the odds in favour of B solving the same problem are 7 to 5, find the probability that the problem will be solved.
Answer
The odds against A solving the problems are 4 : 3.

Let $P\left(A^{\prime}\right)=P(A$ does not solve the problem $)=\frac{4}{4+3}=\frac{4}{7}$

So, the probability that A solves the problem = P(A) = 1 – P(A’)

$\begin{aligned} & =1-\frac{4}{7} \\ & =\frac{3}{7}\end{aligned}$

Similarly, let P(B) = P(B solves the problem) Since odds in favour of B solving the problem are 7 : 5.

$\therefore P ( B )=\frac{7}{7+5}=\frac{7}{12}$

Required probability P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

Since A and B are independent events.

∴ P(A ∩ B) = P(A) . P(B)

∴ Required probability = P(A) + P(B) – P(A) . P(B)

$\begin{aligned} & =\frac{3}{7}+\frac{7}{12}-\frac{3}{7} \times \frac{7}{12} \\ & =\frac{16}{21}\end{aligned}$

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Question 73 Marks
A letter is taken at random from the letters of the word ‘ASSISTANT’ and another letter is taken at random from the letters of the word ‘STATISTICS’. Find the probability that the selected letters are the same.
Answer
Word ASSISTANT has 2A, I, N, 3S, 2T, and word STATISTICS has A, C, 2I, 3S, 3T. C and N are uncommon letters.

In the words ASSISTANT, there are 9 letters out of which 2 letters are ‘A’, and in the word STATISTICS, there are 10 letters, out of which 1 letter is A.

$\therefore$ Probability of choosing A from both the letters $=\frac{{ }^2 C_1}{{ }^9 C_1} \times \frac{{ }^1 C_1}{{ }^{10} C_1}=\frac{2}{9} \times \frac{1}{10}=\frac{1}{45}$

Similarly,

Probability of choosing I from both the letters $=\frac{{ }^1 C _1}{{ }^9 C _1} \times \frac{{ }^2 C _1}{{ }^{10} C _1}=\frac{1}{9} \times \frac{2}{10}=\frac{1}{45}$

Probability of choosing $S$ from both the letters $=\frac{{ }^3 C _1}{{ }^9 C _1} \times \frac{{ }^3 C _1}{{ }^{10} C _1}=\frac{3}{9} \times \frac{3}{10}=\frac{1}{10}$

Probability of choosing $T$ from both the letters $=\frac{{ }^2 C_1}{{ }^9 C_1} \times \frac{{ }^3 C_1}{{ }^{10} C_1}=\frac{2}{9} \times \frac{3}{10}=\frac{1}{15}$

Required probability $=\frac{1}{45}+\frac{1}{45}+\frac{1}{10}+\frac{1}{15}=\frac{19}{90}$

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Question 83 Marks
In how many ways can the letters of the word ARRANGEMENTS be arranged? (i) Find the chance that an arrangement chosen at random begins with the letters EE. 2. Find the probability that the consonants are together.
Answer
The word ‘ARRANGEMENTS’ has 12 letters in which 2A, 2E, 2N, 2R, G, M, T, S are there.

$n ( S )=$ Total number of arrangements $=\frac{12 !}{2 ! 2 ! 2 ! 2 !}=\frac{12 !}{(2 !)^4}$

(i) A: Arrangement chosen at random begins with the letters EE. If the first and second places are filled with EE, there are 10 letters left in which 2A, 2N, 2R, G, M, T, S are there.

$\therefore n ( A )=\frac{10 !}{2 ! 2 ! 2 !}=\frac{10 !}{(2 !)^3}$

B: Consonants (G, M, T, S, 2N, 2R) are together.

2A, 2E, and the group containing consonants form total 5 units. Which can be arranged in

$\frac{5 !}{2 ! 2 !}$ ways.

Also, 8 consonants can be arranged among themselves in $\frac{8 !}{2 ! 2 !}$ ways.

$\begin{aligned} n ( B ) & =\frac{5 !}{2 ! 2 !} \times \frac{8 !}{2 ! 2 !} \\ P ( B ) & =\frac{ n ( B )}{ n ( S )} \\ & =\frac{5 !}{2 ! \times 2 !} \times \frac{8 !}{2 ! \times 2 !} \times \frac{(2 !)^4}{(12) !} \\ & =\frac{5 !}{12 \times 11 \times 10 \times 9}\end{aligned}$

$=\frac{1}{99}$

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Question 93 Marks
If the letters of the word ‘REGULATIONS’ be arranged at random, what is the probability that there will be exactly 4 letters between R and E?
Answer
There are 11 letters in the word ‘REGULATIONS’ which can be arranged among themselves in 11! ways.

∴ n(S) = 11!

Let event A: There will be exactly 4 letters between R and E. R, E can occur at (1, 6), (2, 7), ….,(6, 11) positions.

So, there are 6 possibilities.

Also, R and E can interchange their positions.

So, R, E can be arranged in 2 × 6 = 12 ways.

Remaining 9 letters can be arranged in 9! ways.

∴ n(A) = 12 × 9!

$\therefore P ( A )=\frac{ n ( A )}{ n ( S )}=\frac{12 \times 9 !}{11 !}=\frac{12 \times 9 !}{11 \times 10 \times 9 !}=\frac{6}{55}$

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Question 103 Marks
If $A, B$ and $C$ are independent events, $P(A \cap B)=\frac{1}{2}, P(B \cap C)=\frac{1}{3}, P(C \cap A)=\frac{1}{6}$, then find

P(A), P(B) and P(C).

Answer
Since A and B are independent events, P(A ∩ B) = P(A) . P(B)

$\therefore P(A) \cdot P(B)=\frac{1}{2} \ldots \ldots( i )$

B and C are independent events.

∴ P(B ∩ C) = P(B) . P(C)

$\therefore P(B) \cdot P(C)=\frac{1}{3} \ldots \ldots($ ii $)$

A and C are independent events.

∴ P(A ∩ C) = P(A) . P(C)

$\therefore P(A) \cdot P(C)=\frac{1}{6} \ldots \ldots$ (iii)

Dividing (i) by (ii), we get

$\frac{ P ( A ) P ( B )}{ P ( B ) P ( C )}=\frac{\frac{1}{2}}{\frac{1}{3}}$

$P(A)=\frac{3}{2} P(C) \ldots .$. (iv)

Substituting equation (iv) in (iii), we get

$\begin{aligned} & \frac{3}{2} P(C) \cdot P(C)=\frac{1}{6} \\ & {[P(C)]^2=\frac{1}{9}} \\ & \therefore P(C)=\frac{1}{3}\end{aligned}$

Substituting $P(C)=\frac{1}{3}$ in equation (ii), we get $P(B)=1$

Substituting $P(B)=1$ in equation (i), we get $P(A)=\frac{1}{2}$

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Question 113 Marks
The letters of the word ‘EQUATION’ are arranged in a row. Find the probability that (i) all the vowels are together

ii. arrangement starts with a vowel and ends with a consonant.

Answer
The letters of the word EQUATION can be arranged in 8! ways.

∴ n(S) = 8!

There are 5 vowels and 3 consonants.

(i) A: all vowels are together we need to arrange (E, U, A, I, O), Q, T, N

Let us consider all vowels as one unit.

So, there are 4 units, which can be arranged in 4! ways.

Also, 5 vowels can be arranged among themselves in 5! ways.

∴ n(A) = 4! × 5!

Required probability = P(A)

$\begin{aligned} & =\frac{n(A)}{n(S)} \\ & =\frac{4 ! \times 5 !}{8 !} \\ & =\frac{1}{14}\end{aligned}$

B: arrangement start with a vowel and ends with a consonant.

First and last places can be filled in 5 and 3 ways respectively. Remaining 6 letters are arranged in 6! Ways.

∴ n(B) = 5 × 3 × 6!

Required probability = P(B)

$\begin{aligned} & =\frac{n(B)}{n(S)} \\ & =\frac{5 \times 3 \times 6 !}{8 !} \\ & =\frac{15}{56}\end{aligned}$

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Question 123 Marks
The probability of one event A happening is the square of the probability of second event $B$, but the odds against the event $A$ are the cube of the odds against the event $B$. Find the probability of each event.
Answer
Let $P(A)=p_1$ and $P(B)=p_2$.
$\therefore$ probability on non-occurrence of the events $A$ and $B$ are $\left(1-p_1\right)$ and $\left(1-p_2\right)$ respectively. We are given that $p_1=\left(p_2\right)^2 \ldots .(I)$
Odds against the event $A=\frac{1-p_1}{p_1}$
Odds against the event $B=\frac{1-p_2}{p_2}$
Since odds against the event $\mathrm{A}$ are the cube of the odds against the event $B$.
$
\begin{aligned}
& \frac{1-p_1}{p_1}=\left(\frac{1-p_2}{p_2}\right)^3 \\
& \frac{1-p_2^2}{p_2^2}=\frac{\left(1-p_2\right)^3}{p_2^3} \quad[\text { By (I) }]
\end{aligned}
$
[By (I)]
$\begin{aligned} & \frac{\left(1-\mathrm{p}_2\right)\left(1+\mathrm{p}_2\right)}{1}=\frac{\left(1-\mathrm{p}_2\right)^3}{\mathrm{p}_2} \\ & \therefore \mathrm{p}_2\left(1+\mathrm{p}_2\right)=1-2 \mathrm{p}_2+\mathrm{p}_2{ }^2 \\ & \mathrm{p}_2+\mathrm{p}_2{ }^2=1-2 \mathrm{p}_2+\mathrm{p}_2{ }^2 \\ & 3 \mathrm{p}_2=1 \\ & \therefore \mathrm{p}_2=\frac{1}{3} \\ & \mathrm{p}_1=\left(\mathrm{p}_2\right)^2=\left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^2=\frac{1}{9} \\ & \therefore \mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A})=\frac{1}{9} \text { and } \mathrm{P}(\mathrm{B})=\frac{1}{3}\end{aligned}$
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Question 133 Marks
The members of the consulting firm hire cars from three rental agencies, 60% from agency X, 30% from agency Y and 10% from agency Z. 9% of the cars from agency X need repairs, 20% of the cars from agency Y need repairs and 6% of the cars from agency Z need repairs. If a rental car delivered to the consulting firms needs repairs, what is the probability that it came from rental agency Y?
Answer
If $A$ is the event that the car needs repairs and $\mathrm{B}, \mathrm{C}, \mathrm{D}$ are the events that the car comes from rental agencies $\mathrm{X}, \mathrm{Y}$ or $\mathrm{Z}$. We have
$
\begin{aligned}
& \mathrm{P}(\mathrm{B})=0.6, \mathrm{P}(\mathrm{C})=0.3, \mathrm{P}(\mathrm{D})=0.1, \mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A} / \mathrm{B})=0.09 \text {, } \\
& \mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A} / \mathrm{C})=0.2 \text { and } \mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A} / \mathrm{D})=0.06 \\
& \mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A})=\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A} \cap \mathrm{B})+\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A \cap C})+\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A} \cap \mathrm{D}) \\
& =\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{B}) \cdot \mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A} / \mathrm{B})+\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{C}) \cdot \mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A} / \mathrm{C})+ \\
& \text { P(D).P(A/D) } \\
& =0.6 \times 0.09+0.3 \times 0.2+0.1 \times 0.06 \\
& =0.054+0.06+0.006 \\
& \therefore \mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A})=0.12 \\
& \mathrm{P}(\mathrm{C} / \mathrm{A})=\frac{\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A} \cap \mathrm{C})}{\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A})}=\frac{\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{C}) \cdot \mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A} / \mathrm{C})}{\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A})} \\
& =\frac{0.3 \times 0.2}{0.12}=\frac{0.06}{0.12} \\
& =0.5 \\
\end{aligned}
$
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Question 143 Marks
Two cards are drawn from a pack of 52 cards one after other without replacement. What is the probability that both cards are ace cards?
Answer
Let event A: first card drawn is an Ace card.
Let event B: second card drawn is an Ace card.
$\therefore$ required probability $=\mathrm{P}$ (both are Ace cards)
$=\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A} \cap \mathrm{B})=\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A}) \mathrm{P}(\mathrm{B} / \mathrm{A})$
Now $\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A})=\frac{4}{52}=\frac{1}{13}$
Since first ace card is not replaced in the pack, therefore now we have 51 cards containing 3 ace cards
$\therefore$ Probability of getting second are card under the condition that first ace card is not replaced in the pack $=\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{B} / \mathrm{A})=\frac{3}{51}=\frac{1}{17}$
$\therefore \mathrm{P}$ (both are ace cards $)=\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A} \cap \mathrm{B})$
$=\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A}) \mathrm{P}(\mathrm{B} / \mathrm{A})=\frac{1}{13} \times \frac{1}{17}=\frac{1}{221}$
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Question 153 Marks
One card is drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards. What is the probability that it is a King or Queen?
Answer
Random Experiment $=$ One card is drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards
$
\therefore \mathrm{n}(\mathrm{S})={ }^{52} \mathrm{C}_1=52 \text {. }
$
Let event A: Card drawn is King and event B: Card drawn is Queen.
Since pack of 52 cards contains, 4 king cards from which any one king card can be drawn in ${ }^4 \mathrm{C}_1=4$ ways. $\therefore \mathrm{n}(\mathrm{A})=4$
$
\therefore \mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A})=\frac{\mathrm{n}(\mathrm{A})}{\mathrm{n}(\mathrm{S})}=\frac{4}{52}
$
Similarly, a pack of 52 cards contains, 4 queen cards from which any one queen card can be drawn in ${ }^4 \mathrm{C}_1=4$ ways. $\therefore \mathrm{n}(\mathrm{B})=4$
$
\therefore \mathrm{P}(\mathrm{B})=\frac{\mathrm{n}(\mathrm{B})}{\mathrm{n}(\mathrm{S})}=\frac{4}{52}
$
Since A and B are mutually exclusive events $\therefore$ required probability $\mathrm{P}($ king or queen)
$
=P(A \cup B)=P(A)+P(B)=\frac{4}{52}+\frac{4}{52}=\frac{2}{13}
$
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Question 163 Marks
The odds in favour of A winning a game of chess against B are 3 : 2. If three games are to be played, what are the odds in favour of A’s winning at least two games out of the three?
Answer
Let event A: A wins the game and event B: B wins the game.

Since the odds in favour of A winning a game against B are 3 : 2,

the probability of occurrence of event A and B is given by

$P(A)=\frac{3}{3+2}=\frac{3}{5}$ and $P(B)=\frac{2}{3+2}=\frac{2}{5}$

Let event E: A wins at least two games out of three games.

∴ P(E) = P(A) . P(A) . P(B) + P(A) . P(B) . P(A) + P(B) . P(A) . P(A) + P(A) . P(A) . P(A)

$\begin{aligned} & =\frac{3}{5} \times \frac{3}{5} \times \frac{2}{5}+\frac{3}{5} \times \frac{2}{5} \times \frac{3}{5}+\frac{2}{5} \times \frac{3}{5} \times \frac{3}{5}+\frac{3}{5} \times \frac{3}{5} \times \frac{3}{5} \\ & =\frac{18}{125}+\frac{18}{125}+\frac{18}{125}+\frac{27}{125}\end{aligned}$

$=\frac{81}{125}$

$\begin{aligned} P \left( E ^{\prime}\right) & =1- P ( E ) \\ & =1-\frac{81}{125} \\ & =\frac{44}{125}\end{aligned}$

∴ Odds in favour of A’s winning at least two games out of three are P(E) : P(E’)

$\begin{aligned} & =\frac{81}{125}: \frac{44}{125} \\ & =81: 44\end{aligned}$

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Question 173 Marks
There are three events A, B, and C, one of which must, and only one can happen. The odds against event A are 7 : 4 and odds against event B are 5 : 3. Find the odds against event C.
Answer
Since odds against A are 7 : 4,

$P(A)=\frac{4}{7+4}=\frac{4}{11}$

Since odds against B are 5 : 3,

$P(B)=\frac{3}{5+3}=\frac{3}{8}$

Since only one of the events A, B and C can happen,

P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 1

$\begin{aligned} & \frac{4}{11}+\frac{3}{8}+P(C)=1 \\ & \therefore P(C)=1-\left(\frac{4}{11}+\frac{3}{8}\right) \\ & =1-\left(\frac{32+33}{88}\right) \\ & =\frac{23}{88}\end{aligned}$

$\begin{aligned} & \therefore P\left(C^{\prime}\right)=1-P(C) \\ & =1-\frac{23}{88} \\ & =\frac{65}{88} \\ & \therefore \text { Odds against the event } C \text { are } P\left(C^{\prime}\right): P(C) \\ & =\frac{65}{88}: \frac{23}{88} \\ & =65: 23\end{aligned}$

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Question 183 Marks
The odds against John solving a problem are 4 to 3 and the odds in favour of Rafi solving the same problem are 7 to 5. What is the chance that the problem is solved when both of them try it?
Answer
The odds against John solving a problem are 4 to 3. Let event P(A’) = P (John does not solve the problem)

$\begin{aligned} & =\frac{4}{4+3} \\ & =\frac{4}{7}\end{aligned}$

So, the probability that John solves the problem

$P(A)=1-P\left(A^{\prime}\right)=1-\frac{4}{7}=\frac{3}{7}$

Similarly, Let P(B) = P(Rafi solves the problem) Since the odds in favour of Rafi solving the problem are 7 to 5,

$P(B)=\frac{7}{7+5}=\frac{7}{12}$

Required probability P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

Since A, B are independent events,

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) . P(B)

∴ Required probability = P(A) + P(B) – P(A) . P(B)

$\begin{aligned} & =\frac{3}{7}+\frac{7}{12}-\frac{3}{7} \times \frac{7}{12} \\ & =\frac{85}{84}-\frac{1}{4} \\ & =\frac{85-21}{84}\end{aligned}$

$=\frac{64}{84}=\frac{16}{21}$

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Question 193 Marks
Mr. X goes to office by Auto, Car and train. The probabilities of him travelling by these

modes are $\frac{2}{7}, \frac{3}{7}, \frac{2}{7}$ respectively. The chances of him being late to the office are $\frac{1}{2}, \frac{1}{4}, \frac{1}{4}$

respectively by Auto, Car and train. On one particular day he was late to the office. Find the probability that he travelled by car.

Answer
Let A, C and T be the events that Mr. X goes to office by Auto, Car and Train respectively. Let L be event that he is late.

Given that $P ( A )=\frac{2}{7}, P ( C )=\frac{3}{7}, P ( T )=\frac{2}{7}$

$P ( L / A )=\frac{1}{2}, P ( L / C )=\frac{1}{4}, P ( L / T )=\frac{1}{4}$

$\begin{aligned} & P ( L )= P ( A \cap L )+ P ( C \cap L )+ P ( T \cap L ) \\ & = P ( A ) \cdot P ( L / A )+ P ( C ) \cdot P ( L / C )+ P ( T ) \cdot P ( L / T )\end{aligned}$

$\begin{aligned} & =\frac{2}{7} \times \frac{1}{2}+\frac{3}{7} \times \frac{1}{4}+\frac{2}{7} \times \frac{1}{4} \\ & =\frac{1}{7}+\frac{3}{28}+\frac{2}{28}=\frac{9}{28}\end{aligned}$

$P ( C / L )=\frac{ P ( L \cap C )}{ P ( L ) M }$

$\begin{aligned} & =\frac{P(C) P(L / C)}{P(L)} \\ & =\frac{\frac{3}{7} \times \frac{1}{4}}{\frac{9}{28}}=\frac{1}{3}\end{aligned}$

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Question 203 Marks
A doctor is called to see a sick child. The doctor has prior information that 80% of the sick children in that area have the flu, while the other 20% are sick with measles. Assume that there is no other disease in that area. A well-known symptom of measles is rash. From the past records, it is known that, chances of having rashes given that sick child is suffering from measles is 0.95. However occasionally children with flu also develop rash, whose chance are 0.08. Upon examining the child, the doctor finds a rash. What is the probability that child is suffering from measles?
Answer
Let the total number of sick children be 100.

∴ n(S) = 100.

Let event A: The child is sick with flu,

event B: The child is sick with measles,

event C: The child is sick with rash.

∴ n(A) = 80 and n(B) = 20

$\begin{aligned} & \therefore P ( A )=\frac{n(A)}{n(S)}=\frac{80}{100}=\frac{4}{5} \\ & P ( B )=\frac{n(B)}{n(S)}=\frac{20}{100}=\frac{1}{5}\end{aligned}$

Since the chances of having rashes, if the child is suffering from measles is 0.95 and the chances of having rashes if the child has flu is 0.08,

$\begin{aligned} & P(C / B)=0.95=\frac{95}{100} \text { and } \\ & P(C / A)=0.08=\frac{8}{100}\end{aligned}$

Required probability = P(B/C)

By Bayes’ theorem,

$\begin{aligned} P(B / C) & =\frac{P(B) \cdot P(C / B)}{P(A) \cdot P(C / A)+P(B) \cdot P(C / B)} \\ & =\frac{\left(\frac{1}{5}\right)\left(\frac{95}{100}\right)}{\left(\frac{4}{5}\right)\left(\frac{8}{100}\right)+\left(\frac{1}{5}\right)\left(\frac{95}{100}\right)}\end{aligned}$

$=\frac{95}{32+95}$

$=\frac{95}{127}=0.748$

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Question 213 Marks
Jar I contains 5 white and 7 black balls. Jar II contains 3 white and 12 black balls. A fair coin is flipped; if it is Head, a ball is drawn from Jar I, and if it is Tail, a ball is drawn from Jar II. Suppose that this experiment is done and a white ball was drawn. What is the probability that this ball was in fact taken from Jar II?
Answer
Let event $J _1$ : Ball drawn from jar $I _{\text {, }}$

event $J_2$ : Ball drawn from jar II.

$\begin{aligned} & P \left(J_1\right)= P (\text { head })=\frac{1}{2} \\ & P \left(J_2\right)= P (\text { tail })=\frac{1}{2}\end{aligned}$

Let event W: Ball drawn is white. In Jar I, there are total 12 balls, out of which 5 balls are white.

∴ Probability that the ball drawn is white under the condtion that it is drawn from Jar I.

$P \left( W / J_1\right)=\frac{{ }^5 C_1}{{ }^{12} C_1}=\frac{5}{12}$

Similarly, $P \left( W / J _2\right)=\frac{{ }^3 C_1}{{ }^{15} C_1}=\frac{3}{15}=\frac{1}{5}$

Required probability $= P \left( J _2 / W \right)$

By Bayes’ theorem,

$\begin{aligned} P \left( J _2 / W \right) & =\frac{ P \left( J _2\right) P \left( W / J _2\right)}{ P \left( J _1\right) P \left( W / J _1\right)+ P \left( J _2\right) P \left( W / J _2\right)} \\ & =\frac{\frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{5}}{\frac{1}{2} \times \frac{5}{12}+\frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{5}}\end{aligned}$

$=\frac{\frac{1}{5}}{\frac{25+12}{60}}=\frac{12}{37}$

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Question 223 Marks
If $E_1$ and $E_2$ are equally likely, mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and $P\left(A / E_1\right)=0.2$,

$P\left(A / E_2\right)=0.3$. Find $P\left(E_1 / A\right)$.

Answer
$E_1$ and $E_2$ are equally likely, mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.

$\therefore P\left(E_1\right)=P\left(E_2\right)=\frac{1}{2}$

$ \begin{aligned} & P\left(A / E_1\right)=\frac{P\left(A \cap E_1\right)}{P\left(E_1\right)}=0.2=\frac{2}{10} \\ & P\left(A / E_2\right)=\frac{P\left(A \cap E_2\right)}{P\left(E_2\right)}=0.3=\frac{3}{10} \end{aligned} $ By Bayes' theorem,

$\begin{aligned} P\left(E_1 / A\right) & =\frac{P\left(E_1\right) \cdot P\left(A / E_1\right)}{P\left(E_1\right) \cdot P\left(A / E_1\right)+P\left(E_2\right) \cdot P\left(A / E_2\right)} \\ & =\frac{\frac{1}{2} \cdot\left(\frac{2}{10}\right)}{\frac{1}{2}\left(\frac{2}{10}\right)+\frac{1}{2}\left(\frac{3}{10}\right)} \cdots\left[\because P\left(E_1\right)=P\left(E_2\right)\right]\end{aligned}$

$\begin{aligned} & =\frac{2}{2+3} M \\ & =\frac{2}{5}=0.4\end{aligned}$

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Question 233 Marks
Three fair coins are tossed. What is the probability of getting three heads given that at least two coins show heads?
Answer
When three fair coins are tossed, the sample space is S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}

∴ n(S) = 8 Let event A: Getting three heads.

∴ A = {HHH}

Let event B: Getting at least two heads.

∴ B = {HHT, HTH, THH, HHH}

∴ n(B) = 4

$\begin{aligned} & \therefore P ( B )=\frac{n(B)}{n(S)}=\frac{4}{8} \\ & \text { Now, } A \cap B =\{ HHH \} \\ & \therefore n ( A \cap B )=1 \\ & \therefore P ( A \cap B )=\frac{n(A \cap B)}{n(S)}=\frac{1}{8}\end{aligned}$

∴ Probability of getting three heads, given that at least two coins show heads, is given by

$\begin{aligned} & P(A / B)=\frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} \\ & =\frac{\frac{1}{8}}{\frac{4}{8}} \\ & =\frac{1}{4}\end{aligned}$

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Question 243 Marks
A bag contains 5 red, 4 blue and an unknown number m of green balls. If the probability

of getting both the balls green, when two balls are selected at random is $\frac{1}{7}$, find $m$.

Answer
Total number of balls in the bag = 5 + 4 + m = 9 + m

Two balls are selected from $(9+m)$ balls in ${ }^{9+m} C_2$ ways.

$\therefore n (S)={ }^{9+m} C _2$

Let event A: The two balls selected are green.

$\therefore 2$ balls can be selected from $m$ balls in ${ }^{ m } C _2$ ways.

$\begin{aligned} & \therefore n(A)={ }^m C_2 \\ & \begin{aligned} P(A) & =\frac{n(A)}{n(S)} \\ \frac{1}{7} & =\frac{{ }^m C_2}{{ }^{9+m} C_2} \\ & =\frac{\frac{m !}{(m-2) ! 2 !}}{(9+m) !} \\ & =\frac{(9+m-2) ! 2 !}{(9+m)(8+m)(7+m) !}\end{aligned}\end{aligned}$

$\frac{1}{7}=\frac{m(m-1)}{(9+m)(8+m)}$

(9 + m)(8 + m) = 7m(m – 1)

72 + 9m + 8m + m2 = 7m2 – 7m

6m2 – 24m – 72 = 0

m2 – 4m – 12 = 0

(m – 6)(m + 2) = 0

m = 6 or m = -2

Since number of balls cannot be negative, m ≠ -2 ∴ m = 6

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Question 253 Marks
For two events $A$ and $B$ of a sample space $S$, if $P(A)=\frac{3}{8}, P(B)=\frac{1}{2}$ and $P(A \cup B)=\frac{5}{8}$. Find the value of the following.

(a) P(A ∩ B)

(b)P(A’ ∩ B’)

(c)P(A’ ∪ B’)
Answer
Here, $P(A)=\frac{3}{8}, P(B)=\frac{1}{2}, P(A \cup B)=\frac{5}{8}$

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

∴ P(A ∩ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∪ B)

$\begin{aligned} & =\frac{3}{8}+\frac{1}{2}-\frac{5}{8} \\ & =\frac{1}{4}\end{aligned}$

2. P(A’ ∩ B’) = P(A ∪ B)’ = 1 – P(A ∪ B)

$\begin{aligned} & =1-\frac{5}{8} \\ & =\frac{3}{8}\end{aligned}$

3. P(A’ ∪ B’) = P(A ∩ B)’ = 1 – P(A ∩ B)

$\begin{aligned} & =1-\frac{1}{4} \\ & =\frac{3}{4}\end{aligned}$

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Question 263 Marks
Two fair dice are thrown. Find the probability that the number on the upper face of the first die is 3 or sum of the numbers on their upper faces is 6.
Answer
When two dice are thrown, the sample space is

S = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6), (3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6), (5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6)}

∴ n(S) = 36

Let event A: The number on the upper face of the first die is 3.

∴ A = {(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6)}

∴ n(A) = 6

$\therefore P ( A )=\frac{n(A)}{n(S)}=\frac{6}{36}$

Let event B: Sum of the numbers on their upper faces is 6.

∴ B = {(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)}

∴ n(B) = 5

$\therefore P(B)=\frac{n(B)}{n(S)}=\frac{5}{36}$

Now, A ∩ B = {(3, 3)}

∴ n(A ∩ B) = 1

$\therefore P ( A \cap B )=\frac{ n ( A \cap B )}{ n ( S )}=\frac{1}{36}$

∴ Required probability

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

$\begin{aligned} & =\frac{6}{36}+\frac{5}{36}-\frac{1}{36} \\ & =\frac{10}{36} \\ & =\frac{5}{18}\end{aligned}$

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Question 273 Marks
A bag contains 7 black and 4 red balls. If 3 balls are drawn at random, find the probability that

(i) all are black.

ii. one is black and two are red.

Answer
The bag contains 7 black and 4 red balls,

i.e., 7 + 4 = 11 balls.

$\therefore 3$ balls can be drawn out of 11 balls in ${ }^{11} C _3$ ways.

$\therefore n ( S )={ }^{11} C _3$

(i) Let event A: All 3 balls drawn are black.

There are 7 black balls.

$\therefore 3$ black balls can be drawn from 7 black balls in ${ }^7 C _3$ ways.

$\therefore n ( A )={ }^7 C _3$

$\therefore P ( A )=\frac{ n ( A )}{ n ( S )}=\frac{{ }^7 C _3}{{ }^{11} C _3}=\frac{7 \times 6 \times 5}{11 \times 10 \times 9}=\frac{7}{33}$

Let event B: Out of 3 balls drawn, one is black and two are red.

There are 7 black and 4 red balls.

$\therefore$ One black ball can be drawn from 7 black balls in ${ }^7 C _1$ ways and 2 red balls can be

drawn from 4 red balls in ${ }^4 C _2$ ways.

$\begin{aligned} & \therefore n ( A )={ }^7 C _1 \times{ }^4 C _2 \\ & \therefore P ( A )=\frac{n(A)}{n(S)}=\frac{{ }^7 C_1 \times{ }^4 C_2}{{ }^{11} C_3}=\frac{7 \times \frac{4 \times 3}{2}}{\frac{11 \times 1 \times 9}{3 \times 2 \times 1}}=\frac{14}{55}\end{aligned}$

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Question 283 Marks
A room has three sockets for lamps. From a collection of 10 bulbs of which 6 are defective. At night a person selects 3 bulbs, at random and puts them in sockets. What is the probability that

(i) room is still dark.

ii. the room is lit.

Answer
Total number of bulbs = 10

Number of defective bulbs = 6

∴ Number of non-defective bulbs = 4

3 bulbs can be selected out of 10 bulbs in ${ }^{10} C _3$ ways.

$\therefore n(S)={ }^{10} C_3$

(i) Let event A: The room is dark.

For event A to happen the bulbs should be selected from the 6 defective bulbs. This can

be done in ${ }^6 C _3$ ways.

$\begin{aligned} & \therefore n ( A )={ }^6 C _3 \\ & \therefore P ( A )=\frac{n(A)}{n(S)}=\frac{{ }^6 C_3}{{ }^{10} C_3}=\frac{6 \times 5 \times 4}{10 \times 9 \times 8}=\frac{1}{6}\end{aligned}$

ii. Let event A’: The room is lit.

∴ P(Room is lit) = 1 – P(Room is not lit)

$\therefore P\left(A^{\prime}\right)=1-P(A)=1-\frac{1}{6}=\frac{5}{6}$

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Question 293 Marks
From a bag containing 10 red, 4 blue, and 6 black balls, a ball is drawn at random. Find the probability of drawing (a) a red bail.

(b)a blue or black ball.

(c)not a black ball.

Answer
The bag contains 10 red, 4 blue, and 6 black balls, i.e., 10 + 4 + 6 = 20 balls.

One ball can be drawn from 20 balls in ${ }^{20} C _1$ ways.

$\therefore n ( S )={ }^{20} C _1=20$

Let event A: Ball drawn is red. There are total 10 red balls.

$\therefore 1$ red ball can be drawn from 10 red balls in ${ }^{10} C_1$ ways.

$\begin{aligned} & \therefore n ( A )={ }^{10} C _1=10 \\ & \therefore P ( A )=\frac{n(A)}{n(S)}=\frac{10}{20}=\frac{1}{2}\end{aligned}$

Let event B: The ball drawn is blue or black. There are 4 blue and 6 black balls.

$\therefore 1$ blue ball can be drawn from 4 blue balls in ${ }^4 C _1$ ways

or 1 black ball can be drawn from 6 black balls in ${ }^6 C_1$ ways.

$\begin{aligned} & \therefore n ( B )={ }^4 C _1+{ }^6 C _1=4+6=10 \\ & \therefore P ( B )=\frac{n(B)}{n(S)}=\frac{10}{20}=\frac{1}{2}\end{aligned}$

Let event C: Ball drawn is not black,

i.e., ball drawn is red or blue.

There are total 14 red and blue balls.

$\therefore 1$ ball can be drawn from 14 balls in ${ }^{14} C _1$ ways.

$\begin{aligned} & \therefore n (C)={ }^{14} C _1=14 \\ & \therefore P ( C )=\frac{n(C)}{n(S)}=\frac{14}{20}=\frac{7}{10}\end{aligned}$

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Question 303 Marks
A coin and a die are tossed simultaneously.

Enumerate the sample space and the following events.

(a) A : Getting a tail and an odd number.

(b) B : Getting a prime number.

(c) C : Getting head and a perfect square.

Answer
When a coin and a die are tossed simultaneously, the sample space S is given by

S = {(H, 1), (H, 2), (H, 3), (H, 4), (H, 5), (H, 6), (T, 1), (T, 2), (T, 3), (T, 4), (T, 5), (T, 6)}

(a) A : Getting a tail and an odd number.

∴ A = {(T, 1), (T, 3), (T, 5)} (b)

B : Getting a prime number.

∴ B = {(H, 2), (H, 3), (H, 5), (T, 2), (T, 3), (T, 5)}

(c) C : Getting a head and a perfect square.

∴ C = {(H, 1), (H, 4)}

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