event B: Bulb manufactured by machine B
event C: Bulb manufactured by machine C
event D: Bulb defective
$\begin{aligned} & \therefore P(A)=\frac{25}{100} \\ & P(B)=\frac{35}{100} \\ & P(C)=\frac{40}{100}\end{aligned}$
Machines A, B and C manufacture respectively 25%, 35% and 40% of the bulbs. Of their outputs, 5, 4, and 2 percent are respectively defective bulbs.
$P ( D / A )=\frac{5}{100}, P ( D / B )=\frac{4}{100}$
$P ( D / C )=\frac{2}{100}$
$\begin{aligned} & P(D)=P(A) P(D / A)+P(B) P(D / B) \\ &+P(C) P(D / C)\end{aligned}$
$=\frac{25}{100} \times \frac{5}{100}+\frac{35}{100} \times \frac{4}{100}+\frac{40}{100} \times \frac{2}{100}$
$=\frac{1}{100 \times 100}(125+140+80)=\frac{345}{100 \times 100}$
Required probability = P(B/D)
By Bayes’ theorem,
$P ( B / D )=\frac{ P ( B ) P ( D / B )}{ P ( D )}=\frac{\frac{35}{100} \times \frac{4}{100}}{\frac{345}{100 \times 100}}=\frac{28}{69}$